Good morning everyone! IA, MO and eastern NE still remain dry as of 6:10am CDT while areas of rain are lifting through portions of eastern KS as well as western NE. A few snowflakes are also mixing in at times for the NE Panhandle. These rains are associated with an upper-level low (disturbance) that is lifting through the High Plains and is expected to continue eastward through the weekend and bring rain chances to the areas that have remained dry (the eastern half of the region). Not all of what is shown on radar below is reaching the ground, particularly in central NE and far eastern KS/western MO, as the system is dealing with a bit of dry air. In fact, through the lifespan of this system across the Central Plains this weekend, it will continue to have to battle dry air especially along the precipitation shield’s eastern periphery. Regardless of this fact, areas of light to moderate rain with a few storms will continue to expand eastward during the day today.
The rains lifting through the region this weekend won’t be beneficial as many areas, particularly NE, IA and MO, are still combating flooding leftover from the heavy rains from over a week ago and the continuous snow melt that is drifting downstream from the Northern Plains. Flood Watches remain hoisted across northwestern NE due to the rains in the area and the remaining flooding that is ongoing. While the rains won’t be heavy most of the time, it definitely won’t help the ongoing flooding issues along the region’s rivers and tributaries and could exacerbate some of the problems. As a reminder, Flood Warnings remain in effect along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
Rain opportunities lifting across the Central Plains this weekend are associated with an upper-level low that is cutoff from the main jet stream. This will allow it to slowly meander northeastward over the next 24 hours before getting picked up by the northern jet stream and quickly lifting out of the region Sunday night. As stated yesterday, virtually the entire region is at play for rain this weekend, but we believe in more cases than not that it will remain scattered in nature and won’t occur consistently for one specific location through the period. At this point in time, most of the western third of KS has seen a majority of the rain they should observe. As noted earlier, plenty of dry air will be left over ahead of this wave as it works eastward, so initially the precipitation will have a difficult time reaching the ground (known as a virga – precipitation evaporates before reaching the surface) and will need to saturate the surface layer before an rain can make it to the ground.
Simulated radar through 7pm CDT this evening: Areas of rain situated over portions of eastern KS and western NE will continue to creep eastward today and generally not lift into western MO until after 12pm CDT this afternoon, then eventually southwestern IA in the late afternoon (dry air eating up most of what is shown below up to these times in those areas). Through the evening hours, showers and storms will be working across MO while being quite widely scattered in nature across IA, though the northeastern portions of IA likely remain unscathed through this point. We’ll watch for wrap-around showers and a few storms to continue in western NE and along the KS/NE border today as well. While a minimal threat, a few storms as they work across southeastern KS this evening could become strong with localized damaging wind and spotty hail. However, the better threat for this resides into eastern OK. Also, a bit of helicity or spin near the low pressure center in far north-central KS/south-central NE could lead to an isolated spin-up this afternoon through early night.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 7pm CDT Monday: Showers and storms will become more scattered across NE and eastern KS tonight with the better focus for precipitation working along the NE/KS border into eastern NE. Areas of showers and a few storms are likely into IA and MO as well. In general, the storm system will be quite disorganized, with showers and storms also becoming more scattered in nature into the day Sunday across IA and MO (isolated showers remain possible in NE). A few areas of fog will develop mainly in northwestern NE that will lead to reduced visibilities, but should slowly clear up as afternoon nears. Once again, the southern portions of MO this time will be at play during the afternoon and evening for a few strong storms with the main threat staying as locally damaging winds and spotty hail. The vast majority of the precipitation will exit to the east Sunday night, but some remaining sprinkles/light showers can’t be officially ruled out across the region Monday morning before quickly fizzling after daybreak. There is additional weak energy from the northwest Sunday night into Monday for NE which will likely spawn scattered rain showers. However, dryness will win out for the rest of the region as Monday wears on.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through Sunday night: Most areas, excluding western KS where the rains shown below have already fallen, are still susceptible to 0.2-0.7″ of rainfall during this timespan. A few localized pockets can even exceed 0.75-1″ of rain, but will be few and far between and most likely in areas that observe heavier showers/storms. As previously stated, the rains won’t necessarily be widespread over the weekend and will be scattered in numerous spots as it treks eastward. Regardless, definitely not a welcomed sight given the ongoing issues.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days from four various numerical weather guidance: There is some good news after this system passes and through mid-next week as some dry time will be observed (mainly late Monday through Wednesday). A more potent storm system is on tap late next work week which is expected to be more of a threat with heavier rain and even some potential backside wet snow. Models remain in considerable disagreement regarding the evolution of late week’s system as the ECMWF is more amplified and wetter with its approach while various other guidance are slightly quicker with the evolution of the system and pulls it out quicker. Expect more details to come as the event nears and models can hone in on a more confined solution and we can clear up some of the discrepancies.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days: As the low pressure system works eastward through the weekend, it won’t be necessarily windy but breezy with gusts commonly exceeding 25-30mph for most locations. Winds will start to settle down later into Monday only to increase once again heading into Tuesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!