Good morning everyone! What seems like a common trend over the last several days, many in the eastern Dakotas into western MN have woken up to areas of freezing fog this morning. The fog isn’t as widespread as what was noted yesterday morning, but the areas that are experiencing lower visibilities will have to deal with some slick spots on roadways given temperatures below freezing. As the morning progresses towards the afternoon, most of this fog should clear up.
Increasing temperatures and light shower chances in the south won’t be beneficial as many areas in SD and southern MN are still combating flooding leftover from the heavy rains/snow from over a week ago and the continuous snowmelt. While any rains in the south should be light, it’s definitely not a welcomed sight, especially given the warmer temperatures that will come with these chances and exacerbate some of the ongoing issues. As a reminder Flood Warnings remain in effect along various tributaries in SD and southern MN. We’ll likely continue to deal with flooding issues into April also as the snow melts from the warming temperatures coupled with additional precipitation chances.
Simulated radar through 12am CDT tonight: A slow-moving, weak upper-level low will work across the Central Plains today, but bring light rain chances along its northern periphery to southern SD and potentially the far southwestern corner of MN late this evening into tonight. However, the precipitation is also combating dry air as well so not all of what is shown on radar is reaching the ground as some of the rain is evaporating (known as a virga). The rest of the region should remain dry through this time.
With the remaining snowpack, warmer temperatures and increased moisture, areas of freezing fog will return again tonight into Sunday morning mainly across the Dakotas but especially western SD. Slick spots will be a threat before the fog erodes by Sunday afternoon. The threat is not over from there as the potential exists once again Sunday night into Monday morning for additional patchy freezing fog, this time mainly in far western SD.
The upper-level low that will bring shower chances south today into tonight will be picked up by the northern jet stream and help to usher out the precipitation that is accompanying this system to the east as Sunday progresses. An “arctic” front will sag southward during the day Sunday and likely spawns scattered flurries and light snow showers within the circled region below (ND and northern MN). Weak frontogenesis will aid in this potential, but given the cold air advection working through the area, the precipitation should remain widely scattered and very light, leading to little to no accumulation.
Simulated radar from 12am CDT tonight through 12pm CDT Tuesday: Scattered showers along the upper-level low’s northern periphery are expected to continue to clip mainly southeastern SD and very far southern MN overnight into Sunday morning before the vast majority of the rain chances shift to the southeast after this time. A few leftover sprinkles/showers will be possible Sunday afternoon, but will become more spotty as the day wears on. Light rain showers are likely in far western SD during this time. Our attention turns towards that “arctic” front leading to light flurry/snow shower chances in ND and northern MN through the course of the day Sunday. Additional upper-level energy from the west will enter the western Dakotas particularly Sunday night and bring light snow chances (mixing with rain in southwestern SD). This wave will push eastward Monday across the central Dakotas, though will be fizzling as it does so with any remaining activity likely residing in eastern ND Monday night, then northern MN into Tuesday.
Total precipitation through Tuesday reveals generally light chances for the southern and western areas during the period. Liquid amounts approaching 0.1″ are possible in far southeastern SD and far southern MN with an increase towards the 0.1-0.3″ range in western SD. Most of MN will be able to stay clear of the higher precipitation risks and remain dry. We are watching the risk for a more potent storm system late in the coming work week which would bring a round of heavier precipitation, including the threat for wet snow. However, guidance remains all over the place regarding the evolution of this system. Definitely note the timeframe lays within a targeted storm date so the chances of an impactful system remain high, though track and intensity are up for debate at this time. Definitely check back into the week as we build a clearer picture for this incoming wave; Currently looks to be more impactful for southern and eastern areas but time will tell.
Total snowfall through Monday: The weak wave of energy lifting through the Dakotas Monday will offer up the potential for minor snow accumulations generally less than 1″, especially into ND. It’s not a very organized wave and the light flurry/snow shower chances expected Sunday will lead to little, if any, snow accumulation.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Storm-induced warmth increasing mid-week ahead of late-week’s system will promote more rapid snowmelt across the Dakotas, causing additional concerns for elevated flooding risks in the area and downstream.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the high/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!