Good afternoon everyone! Drier conditions still remain across a majority of the area (as of 3:40pm CDT) with even sunny skies being observed across IA and MO. However, we do have an upper-level low with an associated surface low pressure (disturbance) that is starting to really lift across the High Plains of NE and KS. Not all of what is shown on the radar below is reaching the ground as the system is dealing with a bit of dry air. In fact, through the lifespan of this system across the Central Plains this weekend, it will continue to have to battle dry air especially on its eastern periphery. Regardless, areas of light to moderate rain are impacting the western fourth of KS into western NE, which will expand eastward tonight but especially into the day Saturday.
The rain that will come with this wave will not be beneficial as many areas, particularly the northern and eastern portions of the region, are still having to combat flooding leftover from the heavy rains from more than a week ago and the continuous snow melt that is drifting downstream from the Northern Plains. In fact, Flood Watches have been hoisted across northwestern NE due to the incoming rains tonight into Saturday and the remaining flooding that is ongoing. While the rains won’t necessarily be heavy, it definitely won’t help the ongoing flooding problems along the regions rivers and tributaries and could exacerbate some of the problems. As a note, Flood Warnings remain along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
Rain opportunities lifting across the Central Plains through the weekend are associated with an upper-level low that is cutoff from the main jet stream. This will allow it to slowly meander over the next 24 hours or so before it eventually gets picked up by the northern piece of the jet stream and quickly skirts out of the region come Monday morning. Virtually the entire region will see rain this weekend, but we believe in more cases than not that it will be scattered in nature and won’t occur consistently for one exact location through the whole period. As noted earlier, plenty of dry air will be leftover ahead of this wave as it works through, so initially the precipitation will have a difficult time reaching the ground (known as a virga – precipitation evaporates before reaching the surface).
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Monday: The eastern two-thirds of the region will remain dry through the evening while rains continue to lift across the High Plains. The system will slowly work eastward tonight and will be impacting the remainder of NE and KS by the time 7am CDT Saturday rolls around. There is the threat for a few strong storms in far southwestern KS this evening into early night given elevated instability and wind energy aloft, but the main threat with these storms would be damaging winds. Through the day Saturday, watch for showers and some storms to continue to creep eastward across IA and MO, though the northeastern portions of IA can remain unscathed by any rain chances through this point. Showers and storms will become more scattered across NE and KS Saturday night with a better focus for precipitation hovering around the low pressure center on the KS/NE border. In general, the storm system will be quite disorganized, with showers and a few storms becoming more scattered in nature into the day Sunday across IA and MO (a few leftover showers possible in northwestern NE). Once again, the far southern portions of MO this time will be at play for a few strong storms with the main threat staying as locally damaging winds. The vast majority of the precipitation will exit to the east Sunday night, but some remaining showers will be possible even into Monday morning in eastern/southern MO. Additional weak energy from the northwest is possible Sunday night into early Monday morning in western NE which could spawn scattered rain and snow showers, but any accumulation should be kept to a minimum (if any). Dryness for the region will win out as Monday wears on.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through Monday: The vast majority of the region is susceptible to 0.25-0.75″ of rainfall during this timespan. A few localized pockets can even exceed 0.75″ of rain, but will be very few and far between (most likely in areas that can observe heavier showers and storms). However, the rains won’t necessarily be widespread over the weekend and will be scattered in numerous spots as it treks eastward. Regardless, definitely not a welcomed sight given the ongoing issues. The good news is more dry time is anticipated late Monday through Wednesday. A more potent storm system is on tap late next week which is expected to be more of a threat with heavier rain and even some potential backside wet snow. Models are still in quite a bit of disagreement regarding that storm, so more details will come as the event nears and we can clear up some of the discrepancies.
Wind forecast through Monday reveals breezy conditions this evening into tonight across the High Plains where gusts towards 30mph will be common (calmer conditions to the east). As the low pressure system works eastward over the weekend, it won’t be necessarily windy but breezy at times with gusts commonly exceeding 25mph for most locations. It won’t be until late Monday when the winds settle down.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!