Today’s video:
Simulated radar guidance through today shows a light wintry mix moving east this morning, turning to just light rain showers by this afternoon east as we warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s…QPF looks to be ~0.10″ or less…most precipitation is done by ~5-7pm southeast:
Winter storm watch already issued for accumulating wet snow later Friday into Saturday…overall the placement matches well with current data:
The reason why we have higher confidence this disturbance steers right into Iowa into the Ohio Valley is 2 things shown below…high pressure to the north and a very tight thermal gradient…basically an ideal scenario that we are cold enough + have a lot of upward motion that supports a nice swath of accumulating snowfall:
Simulated radar guidance tomorrow using the latest European forecast model…as we go ~7p-1am local time we start to see a good changeover to snow north-central (~Spencer) to eastern Iowa slowly transitioning south to Des Moines down to Davenport and Burlington into Saturday morning; there is a risk the main snow band shifts slightly further south because the high pressure system to the north is strengthening which forces this disturbance slightly further south; given winds sustained at times to 15-20 mph we will have concern for lower visibility and localized power outages as well:
Current thoughts on snowfall accumulations and location…again, there’s a risk that the snow band may shift slightly further south if the high pressure to the north flexes its strength a bit…there’s also a big risk that a good portion of this snowfall initially gets eaten away by mixing with rain and warm pavement temps:
This system will bring plenty of moisture across the state., with a swath of 1″ to 1.5″ across east central Iowa. Equate that moisture to snow….and you get the idea why we could see heavy snow totals.
