Good morning everyone! A wave of light snow continues to impact mainly the southwestern portions of SD as of 7:55am CST with some residual lighter flurry activity across the northern and south-central portions of the state as well. We’ll note the impacts from this disturbance through that vast duration of the day and even the potential for some additional enhancement across additional areas of SD, though will be on the lighter side. However, after this system digs to the south of the region this evening, a much quieter pattern will develop and likely linger through the upcoming work week.
Simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: Light to moderate snows in southwestern SD will continue through the remainder of the morning hours while some additional enhancement across the rest of the state will be likely by the noon hour. However, the main forcing mechanism for these snows will start to weaken this afternoon, so the snows will become more light in nature and generally by 6pm CST this evening, the bulk of the activity will have faded or exited to the south of the region. Watch for some light flurry/snow shower activity to potentially work into southern MN as well this afternoon and linger into the evening. By the end of this loop, virtually the entire region will be dry with only a few light flurries possible in far southwestern SD.
Additional snowfall through this evening reveals a general 1-3″ of snow still to come for southwestern/southern SD with amounts less than 1″ expanding the remainder of SD. Elsewhere, a light dusting of snow will be possible in southern MN, but should be spotty in nature.
Beyond today’s system the pattern will become notably less active and drier overall with only small snow chances into early work week (Monday morning north and areas further south into the afternoon and overnight) as a reinforcing wave of upper-level energy glides down from southern Canada into the region. Temperatures will still be quite cold at the surface and especially aloft, so this wave will help to squeeze out any residual moisture in the atmosphere and lead to scattered snow showers/squalls.
Simulated radar from 3am CST Monday through 6pm CST Tuesday: We’ll watch for scattered snow showers and squalls to dive southward from southern Canada into ND and northern MN starting early Monday morning and continue its progression towards the south through the morning and afternoon hours. This will lead to potential impacts for SD and southern MN as well, but most likely late in the day Monday through the overnight. However, this wave will weaken upon its progression through the region with the snow showers and squalls mostly fading Monday night, but some lingering pockets of flurries will remain (especially north) into Tuesday.
Accumulations with the reinforcing shot of energy Monday should remain on the lighter side while also being scattered. In general, accumulations range between 0.5-1″ for most in ND and northern MN while amounts steadily decline the further south you head (scattered dustings become more probable).
Here’s a look at precipitation over the next 7 days: As previously stated, we’re heading into a less active pattern at least through the upcoming work week with only minimal chances for wintry precipitation. The bulk of what is shown in southwestern SD comes today with another potential wave Thursday. However, things can turn more active heading into the next weekend so definitely stay tuned!
Temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will take a sharp turn behind today’s wave as drastic cold air for March standards infiltrates the region. The peak of this cold will occur from Sunday morning through Monday when wind chills falling into the -30s and -40s are expected in the Dakotas with -20s and lower -30s likely in MN. Once again this is not cold to mess around with as it can lead to frostbite in less than 15 minutes! Projected wind chill values through Monday evening are depicted in the third graphic below.
Wind Chill Warnings have been issued for ND, northern SD and western MN for the cold being experienced now and the brutally cold airmass expected through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Wind Chill Advisories extend south and east of these locations to encompass the remainder of southern SD and eastern MN.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will most definitely increase behind today’s wave, especially across the Dakotas where gusts approaching 35mph at times will be common through the duration before slowly fading into Tuesday night. This will allow for older snowpack as well as the fresh snow that would have fallen to blow around and lead to reduced visibilities. Something to keep in mind even after the snow has come to an end.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!