Good morning everyone! Our first pulse of snow is currently impacting the western two-thirds of NE as of 9:50am CST while some lighter flurries are lifting through the far northeastern portions of KS. As we continue through the day, expect this pulse of snow to continue on an eastward trajectory, but also weaken in the process during its approach towards western IA as the main forcing will shift southward with our main act this evening into tonight.
Here’s a look at the current hazards in place across the Central Plains: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for central KS while Winter Weather Advisories encompass the vast majority of the western and southern halves of the region, including western NE, the remainder of KS and most of MO. An arctic outbreak will follow behind this wave (more details later!), so Wind Chill Advisories have been hoisted for portions of NE and the northwestern half of IA.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST this evening: The first wave of two is currently lifting through the western two-thirds of NE and should remain on an eastward trajectory through the day, bringing light snow chances to eastern NE as well. Most of KS will remain dry through this timeframe, but watch for building risks for flurries and perhaps initially some light freezing drizzle in far western KS. By the end of this loop, NE will be engulfed in lighter snows, perhaps reaching as far east as western IA while the bigger shot of snow will be about to impact far western KS from eastern CO.
This bigger shot of snow will come further south of this morning’s initial area, expecting to lift into western KS after 6pm CST this evening. This is associated with a stream of energy out of the central Rockies that will storm eastward tonight across the southern half of the region. This is not to say that southern NE doesn’t get clipped by these snows as we fully anticipate those areas as well to be on the northern periphery of the snow shield. Very far southern IA will likely get grazed by these snows tonight into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST this evening through 6pm CST Sunday: Snows from eastern CO quickly overspread western KS after 6pm CST and push eastward across the remainder of the state through the evening and overnight hours. These heavier snows will also be affecting southern NE during this time with the northern half of the state mostly dry into tonight. It won’t take long for the snow to lift into MO by 2am CST and encompass much of the state through the overnight and continuing into Sunday morning. Given the fast-paced nature of this system, watch for the bulk of the snow to lift out of southern NE around 8am CST, KS around 11am CST and then MO by 2pm CST. However, some lingering light flurries will be possible.
Additional snowfall through the day Sunday reveals a swath of 5-8″ stretching through the northern portions of KS and 3-5″ amounts encompassing western/southern NE, central MO and southern KS. A corridor of 7-10″+ is looking more likely in northwestern KS based on latest high-resolution guidance. Guidance continues to slowly lessen the amounts in central/southern MO they originally showed yesterday and the day before. There is an area of low confidence in southwestern MO where some guidance is more conservative on amounts while others bring at least a few inches. Based on these circumstances, have went with 1-3″ south of Springfield but note locally higher amounts will be possible. Most of IA will remain virtually snow-free from this system this weekend.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST Sunday through 12pm CST Monday: Look for another weak pulse of energy to work out of the CO Rockies and bring areas of snow to eastern CO into western/southwestern KS Sunday evening through the morning hours Monday. A few lighter flurries may clip far southwestern NE, but as this wave weakens Monday morning, the only remaining flurry activity will be positioned in northwestern KS. All other areas will remain dry through this timeframe.
Here’s a look at snowfall potential with Sunday evening through Monday morning’s wave: Pockets of 1-2″+ will be possible in the western third of KS with a potential dusting extending as far east as central KS.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: A large portion of the precipitation shown below comes through Sunday, but we also need to watch another disturbance that will impact the region Thursday into Thursday night, potentially bringing an additional round of light wintry precipitation. In general, precipitation will range between 0.25-0.5″ through this period.
Temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will take a sharp turn behind this weekend’s wave as drastically colder air for March standards infiltrates the region. The peak of this cold will occur Sunday through Monday when wind chills drop towards -30ºF in NE and IA. This cold is not worth messing around with and can lead to frostbite in less than 15 minutes. Even areas further south across KS and MO will observe wind chills well below zero for a decent stretch of time. The third image below shows projected wind chills through Monday.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Wind gusts behind this wave and through at least Sunday night will be on the stronger side for much of the region with gusts approaching 30mph at times. This will allow for older snowpack as well as any fresh snow that will fall to blow around and lead to reduced visibilities. Something to keep in mind even after the snow as come to an end.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!