Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out today’s hazardous weather blog, brought to you by Mr. Quik Home Services out of Indianapolis! You can rely on Mr. Quik’s team of professionals for all your heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical needs in your home! With the spring storm season here, basements and crawlspaces are prone to flooding. It would be a great time to get your sump pump inspected, or possibly get a new one installed to handle all the downpours this spring and summer! Call Mr. Quik at 317-468-9170. Read more about it at mrquikhomeservices.com. Be sure to “LIKE” Mr. Quik on Facebook, where BAM Wx provides daily updates: https://www.facebook.com/MisterQuik/.
Much of the country is settling into a much quieter pattern this week, but it was much different 1 week ago when all eyes were on a record-breaking storm system to move into the central Plains. This storm produced impressive amounts of moisture. However, it was the conditions present as the rain and warm air arrived that set the stage for disaster. The grounds in Nebraska & Iowa were covered in several inches of snow before the system arrived, following in some cities here an all-time record snowy February. The area had been dealing with extreme cold, and the ground had been frozen for months. In some areas up to a foot of snow was on the ground before the system arrived, and within 2 days nearly all of it melted. Here is proof from the snow depth observed prior to the system’s arrival, and then the snow depth after the rains had ceased late last week:
1 to 4″ of water was locked into that snowpack. The melting alone was already a concern heading into spring, but this storm brought in so much warmth and rain in short order it forced the snow to melt in just 48-72 hours and threw incredible rain amounts on top. Nearly 800% of the normal rainfall during this time of year fell across east-central Nebraska. Here is a map showing precipitation percent of normal over the past 7 days:
As of Tuesday, there are 64 counties in Nebraska under disaster declarations. This is said to easily be the most widespread disaster in Nebraska history based on sheer size.
Here is the current status of area rivers in the Plains. Major flooding continues along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Flooding along the Missouri basin in Nebraska surpassed all time records by several feet! There is major flooding going on along the Mississippi River due to combined recent heavy rains and snow melt, and that won’t be improving anytime soon.
Many parts of the Missouri River have reached several feet above the all-time record water levels!!! Checking out a couple hydrographs, the Missouri River just south of Omaha (left image) will finally go below major flood stage today, and below moderate flood stage on Friday. Further downstream in St. Joseph, MO (right image), the river crests on Thursday well above major flood stage, and doesn’t go below moderate until early next week! Additional concerns will come through the spring as heavy snowpack over the northern Plains will be melting down in the weeks to come, adding more water to these river basins.
How does this compare to recent recorded floods in this region? 2011 is the most recent well known year for its horrific flooding that ravaged these areas. This year actually holds the previous record high river crest in Plattsmouth (south of Omaha) of 36.7′. A record crest of 30.2′ was set in Nebraska City this weekend, which beat the old record crest of 28.3′ also set in 2011. We’ve also shattered records on the Platte River as well. In Louisville, NE, the Platte River crested at nearly 14 feet on Saturday, breaking the old record of 12.4′ which was set in 1960.
The most recent 2011 floods here were triggered by record amounts of snow in the Rockies of Wyoming and Montana, along with heavy spring rainfall in eastern Montana. This was a long-lived flood that extended throughout the summer, causing 2 billion in damages, 4,000 displaced from their homes, and 5 deaths.
Other known flood events in the Plains occurred in 2009 along the Red River in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Manitoba, Canada from mid March to late April. A heavy rain event dropping more than 2″ of rain on top of snow-covered, frozen ground March 22-25th really led to this event. Fargo had a record setting crest of nearly 41 feet on March 29, 2009. The river’s flood stage is set at 18 feet, just for some perspective! Another incredible flood took place on this same river basin in late April and May 1997, causing over 3.5 billion in estimated damages to the region!!!
A really big flood year that comes to mind is 1993. These floods occurred from May to September, and what made this one interesting is that it covered the entire Midwest region with flooding, instead of being focused over a certain area, and occurred for a long duration. Damages approached $15 billion dollars, and 50 died. Over 1,000 levees were topped or failed. 48″ of rain fell in east-central Iowa from April 1 to August 31. For much of the Midwest, 1993 was the wettest summer on record, and in other areas it was among the top wettest.
Looking ahead, data indicates a slow-moving system working across the central/southern Plains to the eastern U.S. from the weekend through early next week – and SIGH – even hints of some wintry mischief now in the east.
Data is painting rather widespread rains of 0.5″ to 1″ over flood ravaged Nebraska, which will certainly aggravate the ongoing problems. Forecast precipitation next 7 days:
Honestly the biggest story is how much colder the data has trended for the latter portions of the month! The idea originally was for a much warmer, spring-like pattern taking over for the last couple weeks of the month. There have been major changes in the forecast, and there are many things happening at once to cause these changes. To honor our commercial clients I won’t unveil all the details, but it’s related to the jet stream pattern and its impact on the Polar Vortex. Now the rest of the month will average below normal for much of the central and eastern U.S. Will there be warmer days mixed in? Absolutely, but the warm-ups will be short-lived.
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Why would I pay for a weather service when I can get free weather on my phone? Relying on free weather information such as free, automated weather apps is not practical if you want to run a successful business. They are solely based on raw computer model output with zero human element. These free apps also have a tendency to send you erroneous alerts about rain or snow coming, even when there isn’t a cloud in the sky! I can’t count with my own fingers how many times I get incorrect snow/rain alerts to my phone. I have more examples than this picture below, but I think you get the point.
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You can inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected].
Our commercial personal subscription will get you a daily, detailed local weather forecast (available anywhere in the central/northern Plains to the Ohio Valley), and a long-range forecast. Monthly outlooks out to 6 months always available, and long-range forecasts are updated daily with forecasts based on research and not just pure models. This + the on-call option gives you an amazing package of information and your own personal meteorologist which means you always know what to expect. It’s so much better than any weather packages you have seen before!
For weather enthusiasts who are just looking for updates during active weather, we also offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather subscription to keep you updated during active weather in the Midwest!!
