Good afternoon everyone! The recent stretch of dry weather over the last few days has been helpful, but many are experiencing some serious flooding in eastern NE, far western IA and along several tributaries (including in IA, eastern NE and along the Missouri/Mississippi River basins. There will be the threat for additional precipitation tonight through Tuesday night for these areas, but the precipitation should remain on the lighter side and definitely not to the magnitude we had seen last week. Wednesday, Thursday and essentially all of Friday will be dry in these areas. However, most flooding along the rivers will be peaking during this time as discussed in this morning’s update. Shown below are the areas that remain under Flood Warnings, which will likely run for several more days at least.
While the threat is looking to be low at this time, there is the potential for areas of patchy freezing fog tonight into Tuesday morning across the areas shown below (particularly western NE and northeastern IA). Temperatures will be below freezing during this time, so any fog that develops in these areas can lead to a few slick spots on untreated surfaces. Most of this fog should erode by mid-morning with any patchy slick spots becoming a non-issue as temperatures rise above freezing.
The disturbance briefly brought to the attention above will be lifting into portions of the High Plains and spawning scattered precipitation overnight. Areas likely to be impacted by this include southern/central NE as well as northern KS during this timeframe, then spreading eastward through the day Tuesday to dampen areas across southern IA, northwestern MO and eastern KS/NE. Shown below is the energy that will allow for precipitation to develop in the aforementioned areas, likely combining with the energy across western SD and keeping these risks around for the eastern areas late Tuesday into the overnight.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 1am CDT Thursday: Watch for scattered light rain to develop across southern/central NE and northern KS after 8pm CDT this evening but especially as the late evening progresses. This can mix with a touch of snow and sleet where colder air resides in central NE overnight into Tuesday morning, which could lead to patches of wet snow accumulation in these areas as discussed later. The wave will lift eastward overnight into Tuesday morning and bring the threat for light rain to eastern NE, far southwestern IA, far northwestern MO and northeastern/central KS as well during this time. Energy from the Northern Plains will phase with the energy in the area Tuesday, so the rain will be lifting eastward and by Tuesday night will be generally located across the southern portions of IA into northern/western MO and still lingering for far eastern KS. A few leftover snow showers will be possible in the NE Panhandle Tuesday afternoon/evening and then fading as sunset occurs. Not expecting any snow accumulation with this. Most patchy rain coverage Wednesday morning will reside across the southern half of MO and will remain through the duration of the day, finally exiting to the east early Wednesday night.
Total precipitation through Wednesday night reveals a general 0.1-0.3″ of liquid across MO, southern IA, central/southeastern NE and northern/eastern KS with higher amounts approaching as much as 0.5″ towards northwestern MO, far northeastern KS and far southeastern NE. This won’t be helpful for the recovery efforts ongoing for the areas impacting by the flooding, but an additional couple of days after this wave will be dry. The northern portions of IA and the NE Panhandle will receive little to no precipitation from this disturbance with the model shown below likely underdone in far northeastern NE. Regarding the mix with snow in central NE tonight into Tuesday morning, a light coating of wet snow mainly on grassy surfaces will be possible while a few localized pockets can receive 1″ of snow.
Behind this wave early to mid-week, we’ll clear out once again and the vast majority of the region will be observing plentiful amounts of sunshine Wednesday and Thursday, especially the northwestern half of the region. Cloud cover with rain chances will still hang around in MO Wednesday but other than that, it will be dry elsewhere. In fact, sunny skies are anticipated Thursday though some higher-level clouds will be working in across southwestern KS late in the day as the next wave approaches. Mostly sunny skies will dominate the northeastern half of the region Friday.
Here’s a look at 5-day precipitation: Most of the region will run below normal in the rain department through this timespan with a few areas picking up near normal rainfall (southeastern NE, southwestern IA and northwestern MO). An upper-level low across the Eastern US can be thanked for the drier stretch of days as it helps to suppress higher precipitation risks to the south and east. However, do note the elevated precipitation in the Southern Rockies which will lift our way this weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will also be on the rebound over the next several days as we watch daytime highs in the 60s far south slowly lift northward as the week progresses. By Friday, highs in the 60s will likely encompass the vast majority of the region, potentially even approaching 70ºF far south. However with this warm-up anticipated through the week, it will allow for snow up north to continue to slowly melt which can lead to continued flooding concerns along the areas tributaries, especially the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers as we approach late March but also into early April.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!