Good morning everyone! There are areas of dense fog to note across the region this morning, particularly in eastern ND, northeastern SD and far western MN where Dense Fog Advisories are in effect. Most of these advisories will expire within the hour while those in far eastern ND last until late morning. Slick spots will be possible in these areas as temperatures are below freezing. However, the fog risk will wane through the morning and especially into early afternoon.
Simulated radar through 7pm CDT this evening: A very weak pulse of energy will bring the chance for a thin band of light snow showers stretching from Bismarck, ND into portions of northeastern SD and far southwestern MN through the morning hours with most of this activity waning in south-central ND and northeastern SD early afternoon. At this point in time, this narrow band of snow showers will be more of a nuisance than anything and will be quickly dropping southeastward into IA by the end of this loop (7pm CDT). The vast majority of the region will remain dry through this time given the confinement of these snow showers, but areas impacted can observe a quick dusting to 0.5″ of snow with locally up to 1″ not being ruled out though unlikely.
We’ll watch for additional pieces of upper-level energy to skirt mainly the eastern portions of the region tonight through Monday morning that will provide light flurry/snow shower chances. The greatest threat for this will reside within MN with the far eastern Dakotas possibly being clipped through this timeframe. Northwest flow from a +PNA pattern (ridge over the Western US and a trough to the east) is allowing for these weak pieces of energy to dive into the region, but precipitation will be widely scattered as these waves will be moisture-starved.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 1pm CDT Monday: Expect areas of snow flurries/light snow showers to impact mainly the state of MN tonight into Sunday morning, becoming very weak and drier as the day progresses, then an additional round of flurries and scattered light snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning, also remaining confined to MN. The energy associated with these very light snow chances will exit Monday morning with the weak precipitation chances also fading by Monday afternoon. Snow accumulations tonight through Monday morning will be light and scattered across the state of MN where the vast majority will stay under 0.5″ of total accumulation, but locally higher amounts approaching 1″ will be possible across the northern third of the state. Please ignore the accumulation shown in the Dakotas in the second image as this model is still taking into account snow during the daytime hours today.
Areas of freezing fog will remain a concern overnight into Sunday morning, then again Sunday night into Monday morning. This threat will be patchy tonight across the region with a greater focus in MN. However, Sunday night into Monday morning will be the timeframe of most concern as areas of dense fog will be likely, especially in the Dakotas. Slick spots will be possible as temperatures will be below freezing during the times of fog so definitely be mindful if traveling this weekend.
Not much to discuss in the precipitation department in general over the next week. After Monday morning, the next chance for scattered, light, mixed precipitation will come Monday night into Tuesday across the Dakotas. This likely won’t amount to much in the way of any impacts. A weak system from the Central Plains also brings the risk for rain showers possibly mixing with snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but should remain focused in those areas and clipping southeastern SD and far southern MN.
A substantially drier pattern (5-day precipitation percent of normal shown below) has settled in across the region as an upper-level trough digs into the Eastern US. This will shunt the vast majority of precipitation and moisture south and east of the region with drier northwest flow taking hold and helping to dry out the region this weekend through most of next week. However, even with less active patterns will come a few weak disturbances (as discussed above for this weekend and mid-week), but won’t amount to anything substantial. Those affected by extensive flooding over the last several days should be relieved of these drier trends, but definitely continue to monitor as snowpack continues to melt late month into April.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days:
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!