Good afternoon everyone! Quite an eventful last couple of days across the region with flooding occurring in some areas to the east and a full-blown blizzard across the Dakotas. We’ll note as the rest of the day progresses into tonight that conditions will continue to slowly improve as ground blizzard conditions let up and precipitation skirts off to the east. However, there still remains some scattered light snows across the far eastern Dakotas into western MN with rain activity positioned in southeastern MN.
Given the intense wind gusts of 55mph+ over freshly fallen snow in far northwestern MN, eastern ND and a majority of SD, ground blizzard conditions will remain a threat until around 7pm CDT for most in these areas this evening as the low pressure system continues to work eastward. The vast majority of the snow has fallen at this point with most in the Dakotas not even observing snow at this time. Do note that Blizzard Warnings remain for most in the aforementioned areas until this evening as winds slowly subside while Flood Warnings will continue in southeastern SD and southwestern MN where extensive snow melt and heavier rains occurred. Flood Watches are also coming to an end this evening across eastern MN as the heaviest of the rains are no more.
Here’s a look at the simulated radar until 7am CDT Friday: Note the light snow activity continue to lift off to the east this evening with virtually all of the Dakotas clear by 7pm CDT. Rain showers in southeastern MN will changeover to scattered light snows this evening into early night before even this activity shifts to the east out of the state by 5am CDT with only a few remaining flurries in the Arrowhead. There will be a very weak piece of energy drifting southward into northeastern ND and northwestern MN mainly after 3am CDT that can bring some widely scattered flurries/snow showers.
Additional snowfall through 7am CDT Friday: The low-level frontogenesis that was prominent in eastern SD this morning has vastly degraded and the snows from here on out will be scattered and light in nature. Up to an additional 0.5″ of snow is possible in the far eastern Dakotas with isolated pockets of 1-1.5″ still remaining a threat across MN, though most will stay under 1″ in the state. A few scattered dustings will be likely in northeastern ND and northwestern MN with the weak wave late tonight into Friday morning.
As the late afternoon and evening progresses watch for the strong winds gusting 55mph+ in the Dakotas to steadily die down and shift eastward into MN. By 7am CDT Friday, winds will have vastly improved for the Dakotas, with some breezes approaching 25mph at times. Before that can happen though, issues with blowing and drifting snow will allow for blizzard conditions to persist until evening, resulting in lingering dangerous travel conditions. Even western MN will have to deal with gusts to 55mph at times this evening and early night, but subsiding to 35-40mph in the southern portions of the state by morning.
We are carefully watching an additional threat for a thin band of light snow that will lift into the circled region below Friday night into Saturday which will likely drop some light snow accumulations. There still remains quite a bit of discrepancies with the model data regarding the evolution and overall scope of the areas impacted, but given the energy associated with a shortwave trough (disturbance) lifting into the area during this time, an inch or two of snow in a thin region across central ND into northeastern SD and southwestern MN will be possible.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Friday through 2am CDT Sunday: Scattered flurries and light snow showers continue to drag southeastward across eastern ND and a majority of MN during the day Friday and lessening Friday evening into the overnight, resulting in light patches of localized snow accumulations generally less than 0.5″. The more “substantial” wave to discuss drops southeastward into northwestern ND after 8pm CDT Friday and impacts the locations within the circled region above Friday night through Saturday. Even this system will stay on the weak side given the drier northwest flow, but as previously stated light snow accumulations ranging between 1-2″ will be possible before the bulk of the activity progresses into IA Saturday evening with only leftover flurry/light snow shower activity amounting to very little remains in the eastern Dakotas and southern MN.
Behind one of the most potent systems to have impacted us this season will come an upper-level trough digging in behind it across the eastern US. This will shunt the vast majority of the precipitation and moisture south and eastward well away from the region. Drier northwest flow will take hold and will help substantially in drying out the region this weekend through next week. However, even with less active patterns will come a few weak disturbances as discussed above, but won’t amount to anything substantial. Those affected by the flooding over the last couple of days should be relieved that drier trends over the coming week will be noted.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!