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Good Wednesday morning! We have dense fog advisories in effect for Northwest North Dakota this morning. Some low visibilities and slick spots are possible into mid-day as well below freezing temperatures and fog will create freezing fog conditions especially in low-lying areas.
Many will clear out for the early afternoon, but mist and drizzle will develop for portions of the area this afternoon and evening. In areas that stay below freezing, some of this could be freezing drizzle and create slick spots on untreated roads. Fog will also develop along the frontal boundary in southern portions of the area. Here’s a look at the high temperatures today from the HRRR and who could see mist/drizzle/fog. Areas in blue could see drizzle and areas in pink could see fog into tomorrow morning.
As we approach the day on Thursday, our system out west will begin to develop and move east. Scattered, very light showers could develop in portions of the Dakotas by mid-day tomorrow. However, the storm really ramps up late Thursday and overnight. Heavy rain in Southwest South Dakota likely gives way to heavy snowfall overnight on Thursday. Freezing rain could accompany this in portions of Southern South Dakota & Minnesota.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Southwest South Dakota. Generally, models are in fairly good agreement on the placement of snow, though the GFS is slightly further north. Going to lean towards the European/NAM solution right now, but portions of SW South Dakota are certainly at play for up to 10″ of snow. Still a good deal of variability for freezing rain accumulation, but given warm temperatures into mid-day tomorrow, going to lean on the less aggressive side, but some light freezing rain accumulation is certainly possible for Southern South Dakota into Southern Minnesota. The GFS does, however, show this potential well.
Precipitation should exit the region by Saturday morning before another storm system starts to work through the area later Sunday. We’ll update on this potential later this week. Hope you have a great rest of your day!