Good morning everyone! After a rather eventful start to the weekend, things have really quieted down across the region with only some remaining windy conditions across northern/northeastern IA as of 10:00am CST. The vast majority of the region will remain on the drier side today with perhaps some isolated patches of light snow showers developing in far north-central NE after 9pm CDT this evening that lifts across far northeastern NE into northwestern IA overnight. By Monday morning, this stripe of scattered light snow will be weakening and we anticipate it to be dissolved by 9am CDT. Any snow accumulation with this small pulse will be very minimal (up to a dusting) and highly localized. Elsewhere, we can’t fully rule out a few sprinkles in far southern MO/KS but dry air will inhibit most of the precipitation that tries to work into these areas from the Southern Plains overnight.
With the calmer conditions settling into the region through the next 24 hours, there is the risk for areas of patchy freezing fog within the red-shaded region tonight into Monday morning. Any fog that does develop will lead to the potential for scattered slick spots on untreated pavement. The threat can’t be ruled out outside of NE, north-central KS and far western IA, but is less likely. Regardless, definitely be mindful if traveling as you may encounter lower visibilities from the fog and slick spots.
Our next wave of precipitation will gradually work into the region mainly Monday night, but will be preluded by areas of light showers Monday morning in western KS and then patchy drizzle in western KS and southwestern NE through the remainder of the day. Watch for more build-up of rain activity with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as Monday night progresses into Tuesday morning across KS and southern NE.
This axis of showers and some storm activity will lift northeastward Tuesday across KS and eastern NE into the states of IA and MO, becoming more widespread Tuesday night into the day Wednesday area-wide. Storm activity will also become greater during the day Wednesday, with a few locally strong storms. Heavier bouts of rain/storms will be likely across KS into central/eastern NE Wednesday, which will help fuel snow development by Wednesday afternoon in the NE Panhandle that gradually pulls into the remainder of the western half of NE and western KS into Wednesday evening. Wednesday evening into the overnight is when the heaviest of the rain exits to the east, but showers will still be likely within close proximity to the low pressure system in eastern NE into IA while backside snow remains a threat in central/western NE into northwestern KS. The low pressure center will begin to pull east Thursday and along with it will come the precipitation risks, though steadily weakening. By Friday morning, the region will become dry once more.
Shown below is the area highlighted for the better potential of accumulating snow with this mid-week event: The map shown is a good blend of all the ensemble runs with a greatest emphasis on accumulating snows in western NE. This system will be quite powerful as its low pressure center lifts through the region while also strengthening, resulting in an additional round of enhanced winds that will gust 45mph+. While we’re still several days away from this event occurring, there is the potential for blowing/drifting snow in the areas that pick up greater snow amounts with this disturbance (most likely the High Plains). Do note that given the time range, changes in track and intensity will be very likely so stay tuned to additional updates through the week as we make adjustments.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: The bulk of what comes through the upcoming week is with this powerful mid-week system. Precipitation will be in abundance with this wave as the vast majority of the region will be susceptible to 1″ of liquid. Heavier doses of showers and storms in KS, NE and the western portions of IA/MO will likely lead to many receiving upwards of 2″ of rain (locally more in the heaviest of storms). However, this will heavily depend on the exact track and strength of the disturbance, but as of right now this is looking to bring widespread rains with backside snow activity northwest mid-week. Flooding will become a bigger concern as well given these projected rainfall amounts over areas that have a heavier snowpack.
Temperatures over the next four days: There will be a dividing line generally splitting the region in half north to south where southern areas warm into the 40s today and Monday while the northern areas stay in the 20s and 30s. Watch for temperatures to increase substantially Wednesday within the warm sector of the storm system where 60s and potentially even 70s will be common (eastern KS, southern IA and much of MO).
Wind forecast over the next four days: The storm system that impacted the region yesterday has since lifted into the Great Lakes. However, watch for wind gusts upwards of 35mph in northern/northeastern IA today that gradually decreases into the evening. Monday will be a calmer day area-wide due to surface high pressure before winds uptick Tuesday but especially into Wednesday ahead of our next potent storm system. Winds will be particularly strong with this mid-week disturbance, so gusts of 45mph+ will be common.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!