Good morning everyone! The storm system that brought a wide swath of accumulating snow to a large portion of the region is on its tail-end as it works eastward across the northeastern portions of MN (as of 8:40am CDT). As we progress through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours, continue to expect the snow coverage to dwindle west to east, effectively kicking this storm out of the region. However, a few lingering snow showers/flurries will be possible into tonight.
Here’s a look at the current weather bulletins in effect across northeastern MN: Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for most in the northeastern part of the state. However, given the snows slowing winding down currently, these warnings will likely expire here very shortly. Otherwise, a couple counties approaching the Arrowhead are under Winter Weather Advisories, but these should be allowed to expire in the afternoon.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Monday: Backside snow action in northeastern MN will lift eastward through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours and effectively pull out of the Arrowhead around 9pm CDT this evening. However, there will be some lingering energy hanging around so scattered light snow showers/flurries will become the main focus for northern MN and in very limited quantities across ND starting this afternoon and persisting through the overnight. Drier air working into the region will cut-off most of these chances by 8am CDT Monday with just a few flurries remaining a possibility in northern MN after this time.
Additional snow accumulation through 7pm CDT this evening: Another 1-3″ of snow is on tap across the Arrowhead of MN while amounts steadily decrease for the remainder of northeastern MN (<1″). Elsewhere will receive no additional snow accumulation. Winds will still gust upwards of 30-35mph in MN today, so reduced visibilities from the freshly fallen snow as well as blowing/drifting snow will continue to be a limited threat. The scattered snow showers and flurries through the overnight can bring an additional coating of snow to localized pockets in ND and northern MN, but not everyone will observe this snow chance.
There is the risk for areas of freezing fog, particularly in SD late tonight through the morning hours Monday that could lead to additional slick spot concerns. Elsewhere can’t be ruled out as a patchy risk for this freezing fog also exists in ND. Regardless, definitely be mindful if traveling as you may encounter lower visibilities from the fog and slick spots.
Our next system of concern won’t be starting to lift into the southern portions of the region until late Tuesday. Given some colder air remaining at the surface, this scattered precipitation may start off as light freezing rain Tuesday afternoon in southeastern SD and southern MN, but warmer air will be flooding into the eastern half of the region, so many in these parts Tuesday night will observe rain showers. However, this isn’t the main course as the bulk of the precipitation won’t impact the region until Wednesday morning. Watch for areas of rain to lift into southeastern SD and southern MN during the morning hours Wednesday that gradually pushes northward through the day. Colder air to the west will allow for moderate to perhaps heavy snow to develop in western/central SD during this time, then southeastern ND and northern MN Wednesday night. Precipitation coverage will be pulling east during the day Thursday, so areas that started off with rain can transition to lighter snows during this timeframe. It won’t be until late Thursday night or early Friday morning when the vast majority of the precipitation chances will be located east of the region.
Shown below is the area highlighted for the better potential of accumulating snow with this mid-late work week event: The map shown is a good blend of all the ensemble runs with a greatest emphasis on accumulating snows, possibly quite significant in south-central SD extending into western NE. This system will be quite powerful as its low pressure center lifts through the Central Plains (also strengthening), resulting in an additional round of enhanced winds that could very well gust to 45mph in the southern portions of the region. While we’re still several days away from this event occurring, there is the potential for blowing/drifting snow once again. Do note that given the time range, changes in track and intensity will be very likely so stay tuned to additional updates through the week as we make adjustments.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: The bulk of what comes through the upcoming week is with that one powerful system mid-late week. Precipitation will be in abundance with this wave as many in eastern SD into most of MN will receive well over 1″ of liquid and some locations picking up nearly 2″. This will heavily depend on the exact track and strength of the disturbance, but as of right now those across western ND will remain on the drier side.
Temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures behind the system exiting today and Monday will largely warm to near 20ºF for most areas. However, another night of cold temperatures is anticipated tonight region-wide with single digits on tap and even a few places in the Dakotas falling below 0ºF. Watch for the warmest air in quite some time lift northward into the region Tuesday into Wednesday with the next incoming disturbance.
Wind forecast over the next four days: As the storm system continues to slowly lift northeastward away from the region, watch for wind gusts upwards of 35mph in MN gradually decrease heading into this evening and especially the overnight. Monday will be a calmer day area-wide before winds uptick Tuesday but especially into Wednesday ahead of our next potent storm system. Winds will be particularly strong with this mid-week disturbance, so gusts upwards of 45mph will be possible (especially south).
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!