Good afternoon everyone! There is still a healthy swath of accumulating snow pushing through the eastern portions of MN as of 3:30pm CST with some more scattered activity hanging back across western MN and far eastern SD. Still continue to expect some additional light accumulations out of these snows as they progress eastward this evening before exiting to the east by late evening.
Simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: The heaviest bands of snow at this point in time will align within eastern/southeastern MN given some low-level convergence and small hints of elevated frontogenesis (or lift) to produce the greatest upward motion. Watch these snows lift eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, pulling out of far eastern SD over the next couple of hours and then eventually eastern MN around 10pm CST.
An additional 2-3″ of snow is still likely along a line from Rochester to Minneapolis to Duluth and points eastward into WI through the evening hours with amounts of 1-2″ in central/south-central MN and less than 1″ heading towards the west-central border of MN with the Dakotas.
Out ahead of the next wave which is set to lift into the western Dakotas tonight there will be areas of patchy freezing fog across central SD and also into MN. This is not expected to be a widespread threat by any means and should remain scattered in nature, but something to note as any fog development could lead to a few slick spots on untreated roadways given temperatures well below freezing.
Our attention will then turn towards the snow that will develop with an incoming storm system late tonight through the day Saturday. An arctic front will dive south and spawn some scattered snow showers and squalls across ND and northwestern MN this evening that lingers into tonight before being entangled/phasing with a more organized system across SD during the morning hours Saturday. Snow amounts with the arctic front in ND and northwestern MN will be light and generally less than 1″. The arctic front will cut off snow from north to south and allow for better snow coverage to develop in western SD overnight through Saturday morning, also pushing snows into the remainder of SD through the afternoon. A few snow showers may also impact southern MN Saturday afternoon and evening, but will be scattered. Snows will start to wind down north to south across SD Saturday afternoon with only lingering flurries in the far southwestern portions of the state by the end of this loop (12am CST Sunday).
Here’s an updated look at snowfall totals from 12am CST tonight through 12am CST Saturday night: The highest snowfall amounts will be located in southwestern SD where 3-6″ of snow is anticipated, including the Black Hills and the Rapid City area. Amounts steadily drop off the further north and east you head with the 2-4″ line extending towards a line from Bowman, Dupree and Pierre, then 1-2″ into southwestern ND and central SD. Less than 1″ amounts will be common for the rest of SD, eastern ND and western MN, though a light dusting will be possible for the remainder of MN.
Beyond Saturday’s system the pattern will be notably drier with only small snow chances early next work week (Monday morning north and areas further south into the afternoon and overnight) as reinforcing upper-level energy dives into the region from Southern Canada. Accumulations should remain on the lighter side with these scattered light snow chances and stay under 1″ for the areas impacted.
Wind gusts from Sunday through Tuesday: Winds will pick up behind Saturday’s wave, especially across the Dakotas where gusts approaching 35mph at times will be possible through the duration before fading into Tuesday night. This will allow for older snowpack as well as the fresh snow that would have fallen to blow around and lead to reduced visibilities. Something to keep in mind even after the snow has come to an end.
The wind will not help as temperatures will take a sharp turn behind this wave as drastic cold for March standards will infiltrate the region. The peak of this cold will occur from Sunday morning through Monday when wind chills falling into the -30s and -40s will be common in the Dakotas. Once again this is not cold to mess around with as it can lead to frostbite in less than 15 minutes! Here’s a look at the projected wind chills from Saturday morning through Monday evening:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!