Good morning everyone! Some scattered snow showers associated with a weak wave are currently impacting the central portions of ND this morning. As we continue through the remainder of the day, expect these scattered snow showers to gradually work east into eastern ND and northern MN.
Simulated radar through 11pm CST tonight: Watch for the scattered snow showers across central ND to continue into the afternoon hours while lifting eastward with time into the northern third of MN, mainly from mid-afternoon onwards. Snow accumulations with this wave as it works east will be very light with a few localized pockets of 0.5-1″ possible before all is set and done. There is also the chance for some snow flurries today as well in SD (not shown by the model below), but forcing is expected to remain rather limited. However, we still can’t rule out a very light dusting of snow where it does snow in SD. By the end of this loop (11pm CST), expect the snow showers to be exiting northeastern MN while we start to watch the next disturbance lift into western SD.
The next round of snow is expected to bring light to moderate snow accumulations across the southern two-thirds of the region, particularly in SD and southern MN. We are targeting an area of enhanced frontogenesis in the southern third of MN which will likely bring the heavier snowfall rates from early Sunday morning through the afternoon hours. This is the area we are watching for 4-6″ of snow to fall…more on this later!
This next system will bring another round of snows, especially for SD and southern MN. Snows along the system’s northern periphery will glide into western SD generally after 9pm CST this evening and progress further across the state during the nighttime hours. Other areas look to be impacted tonight include southwestern ND. Snow coverage and intensity will pick up from the south in far southern MN by the 6am CST hour Sunday morning that lifts northeastward with time through the morning and afternoon hours, impacting additional portions of southern and central MN in the process. Some scattered snow showers may also make it as far north as International Falls. Look for the snows to pull out of SD by 6pm CST Sunday, eastern ND generally by 8pm CST and eastern MN shortly after midnight. While not as large of a concern as system’s past, beware of reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting snow given winds gusting to 25-30mph in SD and southern MN.
Snowfall through the day Sunday: Expect a band of 2-4″ to span across the southern third of ND into SD and the southern half of MN as the system works through these areas. Some guidance recently is becoming rather lackluster in portions of SD so there is a strong likelihood that localized pockets within the state receive less than the 2-4″ benchmark. However, confidence remains the lowest in SD as a note. Frontogenesis or lift looks to increase in the southern third of MN that leads to heavier snowfall Sunday morning through the afternoon and brings 4-6″ of snow. The greatest axis for this resides for Minneapolis towards Sioux Falls and points south. Snowfall amounts will drop off the further north you head.
A more potent system to watch going into early next week comes as a strengthening low pressure system riding a tighter thermal gradient setup to the south of the region. Another round of accumulating snows is expected as the disturbance lifts into the region, especially over SD into MN as these areas will be located closer to the storm’s center. Given the strengthening nature of the storm and tighter pressure gradient, strong winds will likely accompany this storm so blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities will be common. Near-blizzard conditions will be possible in far southern MN. Look for the snows to impact the Dakotas starting early Monday morning and persisting through the remainder of the day before exiting Monday night into Tuesday morning, then MN by Monday evening and lingering through much of Tuesday.
Here’s a look at potential snowfall with this more potent storm system early work week: Please note that this is in 10:1 ratios and amounts would be higher than shown. Also, this is not an official forecast but just one model run of what to anticipate going forward for when this event occurs. Significant snow accumulations of 6″+ will be likely, mainly for the southeastern locations of the region. However, track and strength of the system will need to be fine-tuned.
Here’s a look at total precipitation over the next 7 days: Definitely an active stretch to say the least with 0.5-1″ of liquid likely in MN while 0.25-0.5″ is expected further west.
Temperatures over the next four days: With the colder airmass still in place, look for high temperatures to not recover much today as most in ND will still observe highs in the negatives. Temperatures will fall back into the -10s for the majority of ND while negative single digits will encompass northern SD and northern MN. Wind chills dipping into the -30s will be common into Sunday morning. There will be some recovery on Monday with the vast majority breaking the 0ºF mark and even 20s in MN as a potent system begins to lift into the region.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!