Good morning everyone! The region will continue to observe a mix of sun and clouds today as high pressure works east. However, the next incoming storm system will increase cloud cover from west to east late in the afternoon through the evening hours with virtually the entire region under a thicker blanket of clouds by 9pm CST this evening.
Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted for the vast majority of MO and then the eastern-most county row of KS due to the threat of freezing rain late tonight into Sunday morning. The northern portions of MO will have more in the way of light snow accumulations, but can’t rule out some patchy drizzle mixing in at times. The best chances for icing reside within the southern half of the state, also where minimal snow accumulation, if any, is expected.
We’ll track our next storm system arrive late tonight through Sunday. A few scattered snow showers will be possible in northwestern NE this evening into tonight before snow coverage breaks out and expands in eastern NE and northeastern KS starting around 1am CST tonight. This pulse of snow will progress eastward into western IA and northwestern MO by 4am CST. The precipitation will become much more expansive as it shifts northeast across IA Sunday morning, where widespread snow is expected. With the warm front lifting northward and allowing warm air aloft to overrun cold air at the surface, it does appear that the southern two-thirds of MO, and to a lower extent in eastern KS, there will be a period of light freezing rain starting by 1am CST tonight and expands eastward through the remainder of the night into Sunday morning. Precipitation will continue to lift northeast through the day Sunday and lose coverage, mostly out of eastern NE/KS before lunchtime and IA/MO around 6pm CST. However, do note that a frontal boundary hanging across the far southern portions of MO will likely keep rain activity around even into Sunday evening.
Here’s a look at snowfall through Sunday: We have expanded the 4-6″ range for snow westward to include northwestern IA. However, the lower end of this amount (4″) is more likely in this area with locally higher amounts. The 2-4″ band creeps into far northeastern NE into central and northeastern IA, including Des Moines. There remains lower confidence in northeastern NE as some guidance suggests snow totals could be higher, but we are remaining on the conservative side regarding amounts. Snowfall amounts will drop off further south with areas like southeastern IA and the northern third of MO likely only observing 1-2″ of snow. Recent guidance has also backed off in southeastern IA from yesterday’s forecast. Cities such as Kansas City, Columbia and St. Louis are expected to remain generally under 1″.
As previously stated, there will be a window for freezing rain across portions of eastern KS into the southern two-thirds of MO late tonight into Sunday morning. The good news is that temperatures will warm above freezing freezing during the day Sunday, so most ice accretion that occurs should melt by sundown. Here’s a look at freezing rain totals: Generally looking at between 0.05-0.15″ of ice accretion across the southern portions of MO with a very light glaze possible into the Kansas City and Columbia areas, though not suggested below. Regardless, anticipate very slick roads in the area due to the freezing rain and also further north into IA and northeastern NE where snow covered roads will be possible.
We have a very active southerly flow as another system quickly follows Monday into Tuesday. This system will bring stronger winds, with another solid snow threat for eastern NE into IA, especially northern IA. Anticipate rain coverage to continue over southern MO, expanding north and westward into eastern KS and northern MO Monday morning and early afternoon. Snows once again will break out in central NE Monday morning and push eastward across the remainder of eastern NE during the afternoon and eventually IA into the evening. The bulk of the snow will exit eastern NE Tuesday morning, then IA Tuesday evening. Rains will have also exited MO to the east by this timeframe.
Here’s a look at potential snowfall with this more potent storm system early work week: Please note that this is in 10:1 ratios and amounts will likely be slightly higher than shown. Also, this is not an official forecast but just one model run to show what is possible with this system. Significant snow accumulations of 6″+ will be possible in northern IA. However, track and strength of the system will need to be fine-tuned.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: Unfortunately, we’re still looking at another dose of heavy rain over the coming week for southeastern MO with a heavier emphasis on the Boot-heel. Precipitation amounts of 1-3″ will be likely in southeastern MO with locally higher amounts possible nearing the Boot-heel. Overall, a rather moist pattern in the eastern half of the area, while the western half will be drier.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!