Good morning everyone! The potent storm system that deepened across the region late yesterday into last night is continuing to bring a wave of moderate to heavy snows to a majority of MN as of 9:30am CST with the back-edge of the snows still lingering across the far eastern Dakotas. As we progress through the remainder of the day, the system will be pulling eastward and so will the snows as they eventually come to an end in the eastern Dakotas and gradually MN tonight. However, strong wind gusts of 35-40mph will be common during this time so continue to expect blowing and drifting snow along with reduced visibilities.
Here’s a look at the current hazards across the Northern Plains: Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the far eastern Dakotas (including Fargo, Grand Forks and Sioux Falls) that extend into the western and southwestern portions of MN. Winter Storm Warnings remain for the remainder of northern MN while Winter Weather Advisories are in effect elsewhere across MN and the eastern half of SD. Besides the snow, we are tracking the cold threat which will drop temperatures and wind chills. By Friday morning, anticipate -40ºF wind chills in ND, eastern SD and southwestern MN. The second image below depicts weather bulletins related to the cold, including Wind Chill Warnings in the periwinkle color and Wind Chill Advisories in light blue.
The snows currently impacting the far eastern Dakotas into MN are along the backside of the storm system as it tracks just to the southeast of the area. However, notice below the area of green shading along with the purple contours. The green shading represents the relative humidity within the snow growth zone (or area of greatest snowflake development). Notice the near saturation within the snow growth zone across eastern and southwestern MN that is helping to aid in the moderate-heavy snows as they lift through the state. We expect this area to shift eastward with time today, but remain a focal point for heavier snows in eastern MN. The area of greatest lift (purple contours) is best supported in eastern MN now and into this afternoon. Both of these overlapping variables support the eastern portions of MN to observe the highest additional amounts of accumulating snow, likely on the order of 6″+ before all is set and done. More on this later!
Simulated radar through 6am CST Friday: Moderate to heavy backside snows (deformation band) will continue to impact the far eastern Dakotas into MN through the remainder of the morning into at least mid-afternoon when the backside starts to lift out of the eastern Dakotas (bulk of the activity done here by 6pm CST this evening). Increased frontogenesis and continued saturation within the snow growth zone persists across MN even into the late afternoon and early evening hours. However, intensity and coverage of the snow will be winding down through the evening before exiting the majority of the state by 12am CST tonight. A few lingering flurries/snow showers may still persist in the Arrowhead into late tonight and early Friday morning. Travel will be very difficult within the eastern half of the region today into tonight as the impacts from the exiting snow and strong winds will still be felt.
Additional snowfall through tonight: We are eyeing the eastern half of MN to have the best potential to observe an additional 6″+ of snow given the frontogenesis (lift) and high saturation within the snow growth zone. Regardless, an additional 3-6″ of snow should be expected into most of the western half of MN, though far southwestern MN may receive less additional snow. Additional snowfall continues to drop off to the west with 1-3″ of snow expected in the eastern third of ND and far eastern SD.
Looking ahead past this storm system as it exits west to east today, Friday is looking to be a rather sunny but cold day across the region. Shown below is a simulation of cloud cover through the daytime hours Friday (clouds depicted by the whiter shades). Note the vast majority of the region will observe plentiful amounts of sunshine, a vast contrast to the last few days. However, some morning clouds may linger in the Arrowhead of MN while upper-level clouds ahead of a following disturbance will lift into the western Dakotas late in the afternoon.
Saturday will have increased upper-level clouds across the area but still observe periods of sun at times. Precipitation will remain limited through the day, but a few light snow showers/flurries will skirt across the northern parts of the region (northern ND into far northern MN) starting late Friday night and pushing eastward through Saturday. Snowfall, if any, will be very limited and generally under 0.5″.
A weaker system will clip the southern portions of the area Sunday into Sunday night that will bring a round of light snows to SD and southern MN. Snowfall-wise, a general 1-3″ of snow is anticipated in the aforementioned areas with even the far southern sections of ND possibly receiving around 1″
A more potent system to watch will come early next week as a low pressure center rides a tight thermal gradient setup to the south of the region. Another round of accumulating snows will be likely with this system as it lifts into the region, especially over southern SD into southern MN as these areas will be located closer to the storm’s center. Strong winds will likely accompany this storm so blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities are expected. However, the track of this system and intensity are left to be pinpointed given the timeframe so definitely be sure to check back often for updates.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The greatest focal point for heavier precipitation amounts will be situated over the southeastern portions of the area where 0.5-1.5″ of liquid is likely (generally southeastern MN). Further north and west these amounts drop off but still anticipate anywhere from 0.25-0.5″ of liquid through this timeframe.
Temperatures over the next four days: Look for the backside snows that are lingering across the eastern half of the region to have high snow-to-liquid ratios and fluffy due to the very cold temperatures today (negatives for highs into most of the Dakotas into far western MN). This increases the risk for blowing and drifting snow coupled with the strong winds discussed in the winds 4-panel. A reinforcing shot of cold air bleeds into the Northern Plains tonight into Friday with many waking up Friday morning in the -20s in the Dakotas and -10s in MN. Daytime highs don’t recover much as most in ND into northeastern SD don’t even warm out of the -10s.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days: Continue to expect windy conditions that will lead to blizzard conditions with blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities across the far eastern Dakotas into western/southwestern MN as winds will gust 35-40mph. Look for calmer conditions heading into Friday with only breezes to 25mph at times.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis, Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!