Good afternoon everyone! The lingering storm system that brought significant snow accumulations to the northern portions of the region is on the tail-end as it slowly lifts out of northeastern MN over the next several hours (exiting the Arrowhead around 10pm CST this evening). Elsewhere currently is mostly dry but that will change here shortly as we watch another disturbance from the Rockies lift into the western Dakotas mainly after 6pm CST and bring scattered snow showers this evening, gradually pushing eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas overnight tonight. An area of higher upper-level energy likely will spark some heavier snow showers in southern/eastern SD late in the evening that persists through the overnight as it pushes eastward into southern MN Tuesday morning. Look for scattered light snow showers to mostly fade into flurries by morning in ND while heavier snow showers remain persistent in portions of eastern SD into southern MN. However, additional snow shower activity will be on the horizon ready to lift into western ND around lunchtime Tuesday.
As previously discussed, a more robust wave of energy is likely to skirt through the southern/eastern portions of SD late this evening through the overnight hours, in which some isolated locations along a west to east corridor could observe heavier snowfall. Other dynamics such as frontogenesis and warm air advection support this narrow band of snow, so we believe some locations within the circled region below can overachieve from the amounts we have shown later in the post and receive 3-4″ of snow. Do note that this activity will push into southern MN Tuesday morning.
As we work into tomorrow afternoon the snow shield only increases across southern MN with the western periphery still hanging onto far eastern SD, leading to an area of moderate accumulations. Snow showers will expand with time from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across North Dakota with some of this activity pushing into far northwestern MN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another piece of energy will need to be watched in southeastern SD Tuesday night that could bring light snow showers. Regardless, other areas not mentioned will still have the potential for scattered light snow showers/flurries, but forcing isn’t as impressive. Winds won’t be too overly strong from now through Wednesday morning, but gusts upwards of 25mph will still cause some patchy blowing/drifting snow along with lower visibilities due to the fluff factor and the bitterly cold temperatures across the region. Travel will be difficult in many areas as this snow (though will remain light for most) will easily accumulate.
Total snowfall through 6am CST Wednesday: When all is set and done, most areas across the Northern Plains will receive at least an inch of snow by Wednesday morning. The snowfall forecast does remain tricky given all the complexities of the energy moving through and the dynamics, but it still favors at least minor accumulations for most. There will be a narrow corridor in southern/eastern SD that can receive locally higher amounts of 3-4″, as previously stated. Areas that receive less than 1″ likely reside near the Rapid City area and south of Sioux Falls. Two areas of enhanced totals can be noted: One in southern MN and the other in northwestern ND. Some developing snow-banding will be possible in southern MN which promotes 3-6″ of snow. Some guidance is quite aggressive in this region and we didn’t want to ignore it, hence the locally higher amounts (especially near the Minneapolis Metro Area). The huge fluff factor given the negative degree temperatures in northwestern ND through this duration should easily lead to 3-6″ of snow in these areas.
Now as we work through the morning Wednesday, snow will expand from southwestern SD and push northeast through the remainder of SD into southeastern ND and western MN. Continue to expect this band to lift and expand eastward through the afternoon hours into the rest of MN while producing moderate to heavy snows in SD, southeastern ND and MN. Gradually the system pulls east and the bulk of the activity will be out of the Dakotas around lunchtime Thursday and MN Thursday night, though expect lingering scattered snow showers and flurries to remain. This is looking to be a widespread snow at its peak with a large area of 6″+ on the table before all is set and done. Winds will be on the increase with this system compared to the time leading up to it. Blowing and drifting snow along with lower visibilities will be very common as winds will gust 30-35mph.
Take a look at temperatures from this evening through Thursday evening: Most locations in ND will remain well below 0ºF through the majority of this timespan while further south and east will be warmer (though is relative). Temperatures in SD and MN will still drop into the negatives for nighttime lows, but most should warm into the single digits and teens for daytime highs. Due to these temperatures, any snow that falls will be high-ratio and have a fluff factor. This results in snows that can easily drift and reduce visibilities.
Here’s a look at four different models depicting snowfall from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning: Please note that this is not total snowfall with the mid-late work week storm system as snows will likely still be falling in the eastern Dakotas into MN even after this time. Also, this is not an official forecast but rather just an idea on the potential amounts and expansiveness of this system. If anything, you would be able to add snow to what is shown below in the eastern Dakotas and MN. Regardless, there is high risk for many southeastern ND, eastern SD into MN to receive at least 6″ of snow and couple this with stronger winds, results in a winter storm that will bear watching over the next couple of days.
While the precipitation that is expected to fall this week should stay in the form of snow, we wanted to show the snow to liquid ratio through Thursday. The eastern half of the region stands the best chance to see 0.25-0.5″ of liquid during this timeframe with locally higher amounts possible in southeastern MN. Precipitation amounts slowly fall off further west across the western Dakotas, but still a general 0.1-0.3″ of liquid is likely.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!