Good morning everyone! As discussed yesterday, areas of dense freezing fog were expected across the eastern portions of the area and that has exactly played out across the state of MN where many are waking up as of 6:20am CST with significantly reduced visibilities. Areas of freezing drizzle/mist can also be noted so slick spots on untreated surfaces, especially overpasses and elevated surfaces are to be expected; Something to keep in mind if traveling.
Not only are we watching the fog risk but also the incoming winter storm which will bring a round of significant snow accumulations to the northern portions of the region, particularly ND and northern MN. The very beginning stages of this event are starting to lift into northwestern ND where snowflakes are falling. As we progress through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours, this snow will continue to spread east and become more widespread across ND and the northern portions of SD with time. However, some warm air intrusion on the south end of the snow axis will allow for bouts of freezing rain…more on this later!
Back to the fog discussion, areas of dense freezing fog (depicted in the darker shading) will persist across eastern and southern MN through the remainder of the morning, though this fog will likely shift south some into this afternoon with the greatest threat for freezing fog being located in southern MN during this time. Pockets of freezing fog will also be possible across the northern-two thirds of SD, but won’t be as widespread as it is in eastern/southern MN. Even into tonight and early Monday morning, the increasing low-level moisture and warmer air over the snowpack in southern MN will continue to linger fog risks until the storm system finally kicks this threat out of the area as Monday morning progresses.
Here’s a look at the current weather bulletins across the Northern Plains: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern two-thirds of ND into northwestern MN while Winter Weather Advisories are positioned south of this axis across the remainder of southern ND, the northern fourth of SD into northern MN. A corridor of Winter Weather Advisories also stretch from southwestern MN through the Minneapolis Metro Area due to the risk of freezing rain. Those under Winter Storm Warnings have the best chances for significant snow accumulations of 6″+. Dense Fog Advisories also remain in effect for a large sum of MN.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Monday: Snowflakes flying in northwestern ND will become heavier with time this morning while also spreading eastward across the remainder of ND by the mid-afternoon hours. Some brief periods of snow will be possible in northern SD as the snows gain coverage late in the morning into the early afternoon hours. However, warmer air lifting into these parts will allow for more of a transition to sleet and even freezing rain during the afternoon hours before cold air wrapping behind the system changes this mixed precipitation back to lighter snows in these same areas in the evening into the overnight hours. Precipitation should remain rather light and scattered in southern SD, but should stay mostly as light sleet and freezing drizzle. These snows in ND will gradually lift into northwestern MN shortly after 3pm CST this afternoon and continue its progression eastward through the evening and overnight while mixed precipitation such as sleet and freezing rain will be more common in the southern half of the state. Also during the overnight, the backside snow showers will be working eastward with the vast majority of SD clear of precipitation by 6am CST Monday and snows lessening in coverage and intensity in ND by this time as well. By the lunch hour Monday, backside snow showers in ND will be lifting out with most snow coverage remaining in the northern two-thirds of MN. Please note that breezy conditions will accompany this system as it pushes across the region, so lower visibilities along with blowing/drifting snow will be common. Travel conditions will become quite difficult in the Dakotas as today progresses and into MN this evening and tonight.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Monday through 12pm CST Tuesday: It’ll take some time for this system to lift out, continuing backside snow showers in the northern two-thirds of MN Monday afternoon, then eventually just northeastern MN in the evening and early overnight before lifting out between 10p-12am. We’ll watch another wave of scattered snow showers progress across the Dakotas Monday night, becoming more isolated in coverage as they shift into MN Tuesday morning.
Latest snowfall forecast through Monday evening: There are still some discrepancies in data even as the event is starting to unfold. Regardless, the map shown below is a solid ground for what to expect as the snows lift eastward across the area today into tonight. There still remains some lower confidence from Fargo, ND southward towards where the three states borders meet as some guidance still suggests 6″+ while others are more hesitant…something to keep in mind. Elsewhere, there is higher confidence for a band of 6-12″ of snow across the northern two-thirds of ND into the northern third of MN while localized pockets of 12-15″ of snow cannot be ruled out in the northern third of ND and far northwestern MN. Essentially, the further north you are located in the Northern Plains, the greater snow amounts you should anticipate. Mixed precipitation further south will hinder snowfall totals with many in the southern areas receiving little to no snow.
Freezing rain and sleet across portions of SD but especially MN will be common and is expected to lead to a light glaze of ice generally under 0.1″. Locations under the Winter Weather Advisory in southern MN stand the best chance to see these amounts. Definitely expect roads to be hazardous and slick in these areas as the freezing rain comes down.
Behind this wave of snow, expect additional pieces of energy to keep scattered snow shower/flurry chances alive across the Northern Plains from Tuesday afternoon into the day Wednesday, which could add scattered amounts of light to moderate snow accumulations.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Precipitation is expected to run above average, especially the further east you head with many picking up more than 0.5″ of liquid. Along with the waves of snow through Wednesday, Wednesday night into Thursday will need to be watched for an additional stronger storm system which could bring another round of higher snow accumulations.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will fall behind this incoming winter storm late today into the day Monday with negatives for highs re-appearing in ND come Monday and overnight lows dipping to -20ºF Monday night. This arctic blast of cold air will settle into the northwestern portions of the region and not allow temperatures for most of ND through this timespan (through Wednesday) to climb above 0ºF.
Wind chill forecast through Thursday morning: Wind chills are expected to stay well below 0ºF across the northwestern portions of the area, with wind chills ranging from -20 to -35ºF in ND and northern SD. At times the wind chills for the rest of SD and northern/western MN will drop below -20ºF starting as early as Monday morning as this blast of arctic air settles into the region.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Breezier conditions pick up today and last into Monday as our next storm system works into the region, bringing wind gusts of 30-35mph.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!