Good morning everyone! Another morning another foggy one out there for many across north-central KS, southeastern NE and the vast majority of IA as of 9:20am CST. Warmer air continues to lift northward over the colder ground and areas with a deeper snowpack, resulting in additional advection fog that has reduced virilities in many of these locations. The good news, however, is that the areas observing fog this morning are above freezing so slick spots aren’t much of a concern. Given the colder grounds remaining in IA, there is still the chance for a few areas of black ice though air temperatures are above freezing. Dense Fog Advisories (shown below) are in effect across portions of north-central KS, southern/eastern NE into much of IA until 12pm CST. Red Flag Warnings are also in effect for far northwestern KS due to lower relative humidities and stronger winds.
The areas of dense fog this morning have lined up quite well with our call from yesterday, but some areas will still have to contend with this fog even after the advisories mentioned above expire. Fog will slowly erode for much of north-central KS and southern/eastern NE while the colder surfaces and enhanced southerly wind flow will keep the fog persistent into much of IA this afternoon, evening and overnight as well. Some pockets of dense fog could redevelop in eastern NE heading into this evening.
Heading into Monday morning, most of the fog risks will still reside within the eastern half of the region as a frontal boundary will help to mix up the atmosphere further west. By 6am CST Monday, expect the greatest risk for dense fog to be located in the eastern two-thirds of IA while patchy risks remain into northeastern KS and much of MO. As the morning progresses the threat for fog will continue to shift east as the frontal boundary marches eastward. Most areas will be free of any fog by the lunch hour Monday.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Monday: All of this northward surging moisture and warm air comes out ahead of our next system which looks to impact mainly the eastern half of the region this evening through Monday morning. Areas of drizzle and light showers are expected in eastern KS/NE into much of IA by 6pm CST this evening, though the greater forcing for this will be located in eastern NE into IA. Enough cold air in place at the surface in far northeastern NE into far northwestern IA this evening into tonight will promote more of the risk for freezing drizzle/rain which will make for slippery roads due to a light glaze of ice. This chance also exists for the northern NE Panhandle mainly through mid-afternoon today. Overnight the drizzle/shower activity will work eastward across IA and MO while freezing drizzle/rain will mix in for northwestern IA. By Monday morning, most of the activity will have shifted into the eastern two-thirds of IA through much of MO that gradually spreads eastward and exits out of the region into the Ohio Valley mid-afternoon with temperatures falling sharply behind the cold front further west. A few spotty areas of showers/drizzles may still hang on in southern MO into the evening hours.
Total freezing rain and liquid accumulation through Monday afternoon: We’re eyeing portions of northeastern NE into northwestern IA for up to 0.1″ of ice accretion which will enhance slick spots. A light glaze of ice will also be possible in the far northern NE Panhandle. Regarding rainfall, a general 0.1″ of liquid is expected in IA and MO, though amounts may be slightly overdone in MO shown below. Localized pockets of 0.25″ of liquid will be possible in northeastern IA before all is set and done.
Another system to track will come mainly during the afternoon, evening and overnight hours Tuesday with rain showers in MO, a sliver of freezing rain north into far northern MO and southern IA, then snow showers in northern IA. There is a chance for freezing drizzle leading up to this timeframe Tuesday morning in portions of KS. By Wednesday morning, most of the activity will have departed IA but rains will still remain common in central/southern MO while some light freezing rain will be possible in northwestern MO and northeastern KS. Snow showers will also break out into northern/northwestern NE Wednesday morning.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: There are additional storm systems to track including the one mentioned above as well as a following system Thursday into Thursday night. This is all due to an active pattern that is evolving (especially eastern areas) as a tighter temperature gradient sets up across the region. We still favor the eastern portions of the region for the greatest coverage of precipitation during this time, with heavy precipitation amounts of 1-3″ likely into the southern two-thirds of MO.
High temperatures over the next four days: Very mild temperatures for February standards remain across the area today as most in KS and MO will climb into the 60s for highs while upper 40s into the 50s are more likely in NE and IA. It’ll be easy to pick out the frontal boundary Monday as temperatures out ahead of it in the southeastern half of MO will warm into the 60s while further north and west will drop off, especially in northern NE and northwestern IA as temperatures in these areas fail to climb out of the teens.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Warmer overnight lows are expected east Monday morning, but after the storm system passes through the region a colder blast of air will follow into Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the single digits in the far north to near freezing in the south. By the time Thursday morning rolls around, we could be looking at temperatures dipping just below 0ºF in northwestern NE.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Breezy conditions will set in today through Monday ahead of an approaching frontal system that will provide gusts upwards of 35mph at times.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!