Good afternoon everyone! The vast majority of the region has cleared the precipitation that was ongoing across the southeastern areas earlier this morning. However, there are still some lingering flurries that aren’t expected to amount to anything near the Sioux Falls areas. The overall quiet weather we are observing as of 3:20pm CST will be short-lived as our next disturbance will lift in scattered light snows into western SD mainly after 8pm CST this evening and spread eastward across the remainder of SD overnight and also the southern half of ND as well. This wave will be a quick-mover as it progresses eastward, entering southwestern/west-central MN around 6am EST Friday and also lifting through the state during the daytime hours. Watch for the snows to pull out of the eastern Dakotas around 6pm EST Friday and then eastern MN by midnight.
Total snowfall through Friday: This wave looks to drop a general 2-4″ across the southern two tiers of counties in ND, northern/eastern SD into central/southern MN with amounts steadily dropping off north of a line extending from Bismarck to Fargo to Duluth. Southwestern SD also will receive less snow in general. There will be some enhanced convergence and frontogenesis within the yellow-dashed circle below (portions of east-central SD and southern MN) where localized pockets of 4-6″ can’t be ruled out. However, the lower end of that range is most likely.
An arctic front will spawn an area of low-level spin or a mesoscale low feature inside of the blue-shaded area below. This will allow for some scattered snow showers and perhaps some squalls in northern ND and far northwestern MN starting Friday afternoon after the passage of the first wave and slowly dropping southeastward through the overnight into southeastern ND. However, it will be weakening as it does so and looks to phase with our main system into Saturday. These squalls will lead to scattered light dustings of snow to localized 1″.
Simulated radar from 12am CST Saturday through 6am CST Sunday: Watch for the mesoscale low to slowly weaken and phase with the incoming main system that enters southwestern ND and western SD by 2am CST Saturday and gain coverage/progress east across the majority of SD through the daytime hours. Lighter snows on the precipitation shield’s northern/eastern periphery will be possible in southern SD and southern MN before the bulk of the precipitation shifts southward into the Central Plains by midnight on Saturday night. The further north and especially northeast you are located, the less likely you are to observe any impacts from this system on Saturday.
Northern Plains Snowfall risk for Saturday: This system still has the potential to drop 3-6″ of snow in southwestern SD (the high risk area), but there still remains some variation in model guidance as far as intensity and exact placement of the snow. The American models remain further south and keep virtually all snow out of southwestern ND, but we feel this solution is too far south at this time. Based on a blend of other guidance areas from Rapid City and points southwest have the highest risk for accumulations while Dupree and Pierre will be on the line for a better shot of light accumulations (1-3″) with risks lowering the further north and east you head.
Wind gusts from Sunday through Tuesday: Winds will pick up behind Saturday’s wave, especially across the Dakotas where gusts approaching 35mph at times will be likely through the duration before fading Tuesday night. This will allow for older snowpack as well as the fresh snow that would have fallen to blow around and lead to reduced visibilities. Something to keep in mind even after the snow has come to an end.
Temperatures will take a sharp turn behind this wave as drastic cold for even February standards will infiltrate the region. The peak of this cold will occur from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning when wind chills falling into the -30s and -40s will be common, especially Sunday/Monday morning in the Dakotas. Once again this is cold not to mess around with as it can lead to frostbite in 15 minutes or less. Here’s a look at the projected wind chills from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!