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We have certainly had some interesting weather over the past month across Indiana, and for that matter – much of the country. The jet stream pattern has been quite amplified which has led to the very active pattern. I had someone ask me why the weather around here is so extreme. For one thing, during the winter and spring is when the jet stream is typically the strongest and most active due to strong temperature gradients, which fuels large storm systems. This is why spring is typically the busiest time of year for severe storms as temperatures start to rise and you get stronger clashing of air masses.
To understand why our weather can be so extreme, it’s important to look at our overall climate. Indiana and the Midwest are characterized by continentality, meaning we are land-locked and far from a water source. Land heats and cools rapidly. Water has an incredible ability to moderate the climate of an area due to its high specific heat capacity, meaning less temperature extremes. We find moderated climates along the west coasts of many continents in the Northern Hemisphere. We are also firmly located in the mid-latitudes, meaning we are in between the tropical climates closer to the equator, and the polar climates near the North Pole. Mountains also have a big impact on climate, which we find in the western U.S. These mountains act as an atmospheric dam, keeping the moist, Gulf air from invading the western U.S, and help pool the arctic air intrusions over the Plains. There are no natural barriers to prevent arctic air intrusions from the north into the central and eastern U.S., nor to really block the Gulf air. The ability of these opposite air masses to run towards another unimpeded is why systems we are able to get such strong storm systems.
Looking at 25 years of cyclogenesis climatology “birth of cyclones” it is interesting to note that we see many storms develop in the lee of the Rockies. This is due to the fact that once they pass the barrier of the mountains, they are able to draw in low-level moisture from the Gulf. When a westerly flow crosses North-South mountain chains (such as the Rockies), the air on the downwind (lee) side tends to curve cyclonically. Also note another favored area for cyclones to develop are off the East coast – enhanced by cold air coming off the land and the very warm “Gulf Stream” ocean current that brings very warm water into this area. This same current eventually becomes the North Atlantic Current which greatly modifies the climates of Western Europe.
We could talk much more about factors impacting our overall weather, but hopefully this gives you a better idea what factors take place to cause our weather patterns around here. Now let’s discuss any upcoming storms that are showing up! The pattern this week is noticeably different from the past several weeks. We have a more zonal jet stream flow across the country leading to a quieter pattern this week with a lack of any big storm systems. In last week’s blog, we discussed why the pattern has been so active so far this year: http://ow.ly/lIQF30nQCVk
Weak disturbances are bringing some snow to the upper Midwest this week. Arctic air continues to bottle up over the northern U.S., eventually the cold will make a sharp dive south and east later this weekend and next week. This may come with a snow threat for parts of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and mid-South later this weekend into next week, although details on placement and timing are all over the place. A lack of blocking means systems tend to be more progressive and less likely to become major events. That said, it’s a rather depressing look for the beginning of March. You’ll want to sign-up for our service to stay in the loop regarding any potential snow risks this weekend.
The cold for the first week of March will ultimately be the big story. Temperatures will run 30º+ colder than normal for the Plains during the first several days of March. That is absolutely remarkable, and will equate to sub-zero temperatures there. Even around here, temperatures will run 15º below average.
How long does the cold last? You can find our thoughts daily on our long-range reports. Our forecasts are perfect for growers and folks needing to know what to expect up to 6 months out. We provide that with forecasts based on research/experience and not pure model data. Inquire [email protected] or bamwx.com/contact-us! You can also have access to contact us daily via text/e-mail/phone with any questions, anytime! We can save you big money by making wise decisions on your farm!
With spring storm season fast approaching, you can stay on top of these systems and remaining wintry risks by subscribing to our service!! We now offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather Subscription, which is updated during active weather. This will keep you aware of any impactful weather across the Midwest. Sign-up here: https://bamwx.com/register/midwest-extreme-wx-premium/
Run a business that is highly impacted by weather and need detailed forecasts each day with 24/7 on call access to a meteorologist? Our forecasts are trusted by the best! Inquire bamwx.com/contact-us or e-mail [email protected]! We’d love to help your business. Leave it to us to stress about the forecast!
-Nathan Kitchens
