Good morning everyone! The falling snow is definitely winding down across the area as the bulk of the deformation band has since lifted into WI. However, some light flurry activity will remain through the remainder of the morning but the greatest focus from here on out will be the intense wind gusts that we are continuing to observe, especially across IA. Wind gusts as of 7:50am CST are exceeding 50mph at times across the state, which is helping to promote whiteout/blizzard conditions in the areas that received heavy snow. Even though the snow has virtually come to an end, Blizzard Warnings will remain in effect through 6pm CST this evening across portions of northern/central as the winds pick up the snow and blow/drift it around, resulting in ground blizzards. Areas that didn’t receive snow (or very little of it) across southeastern IA into northeastern MO are under Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings.
As previously discussed, the greatest threat at this point in time will be the strong winds which will lead to ground blizzards across portions of IA today. The storm system continues to lift into the Great Lakes and deepen, resulting in a tighter pressure gradient that leads to stronger winds. Wind gusts will easily top 40mph+ today in IA with locally 50mph+ gusts still remaining possible as well. Blizzard conditions are to be expected in the blizzard-warned areas, including whiteout conditions and blowing/drifting snow. Winds will be lighter across the southwestern half of the region today as these areas are further away from the surface low. Eventually as the system pulls away from the Great Lakes, anticipate the winds to slowly die down tonight in IA with only 30mph gusts possible by Monday morning.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST through 6pm CST Monday: A weaker wave from the Northern Plains will work ESE tonight and clip the far northern tier of IA with snow late tonight, but beginning no later than 6am CST. This system will be a quick-mover and will be exiting to the east while also weakening further by 6pm CST Monday. There will be some enhanced saturation within the lower levels of the atmosphere late tonight into Monday across western NE. However, the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere will be drier, so the precipitation it is depicting in western NE below is likely more along the lines of patchy freezing drizzle with some snowflakes mixing in at times.
Total snowfall for Monday: The areas within the red-circled region have the best chances to observe some light snows from the pre-dawn hours Monday through late afternoon. However, the system will be steadily weakening during its approach and descent into far northern IA so accumulations should remain on the lighter side with better snowfall risks into central SD. Regardless, a general 1-2″ of snow is expected in the highlighted area with locally higher amounts a possibility. There will be a sharp gradient on the south side of this weak system, so you can go from no falling snow to accumulating snow a few miles down the road. The snowfall amounts in western NE are likely overdone as we believe this is more of a patchy freezing drizzle risk rather than snow.
Monday night into Tuesday we still note the low-end possibility of patchy freezing drizzle in NE that could extend even into northern KS. Another weak system from the Northern Plains will likely clip the northern tier of IA again late Tuesday morning and continue scattered chances through the day, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This won’t be an all day and night case but occurs every so often as the disturbance will be quite disorganized. Accumulations with this wave look to stay rather light with better forcing up into MN. Watch for freezing drizzle/rain risks to increase across northern KS Tuesday night into Wednesday while temperatures further south will be warm enough for regular shower activity in southeastern KS into central MO.
Our next best chance for snow across a chunk of the region comes Friday through early Saturday morning as a more complex system pulls out of the Rockies with the surface low gliding across the far southern tier of the region. Accumulating snows will be possible this wave, pending any fluctuations in track and intensity. However given this system is at least 5 days away, the specifics cannot be pinpointed at this time but remember that this is one of our targeted storm dates.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The heaviest precipitation during this period should remain confined south and east of the region with a general 0.1-0.5″ of liquid for most areas. A large portion of what is shown below will come Friday into early Saturday, so any changes with that system will alter our week’s precipitation, especially given that the waves up to that time will be on the weaker side.
High temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures struggle today to rise out of the lower teens in IA and NE with the likelihood of single digits for highs Monday and potentially even Tuesday in the same areas.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: With the storm system exiting to the northeast this morning, much colder temperatures will funnel in and by Monday morning, expect lows to dip into the negatives for much of NE and IA. Wind chills approach -20ºF will be common. The same story can be said for the northern halves of NE and IA Tuesday morning thanks to the arctic blast of air lingering around and the fresh snowpack on the ground.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!