Good morning everyone! The system that brought heavy snows to southeastern MN last night is pulling away from the state with the bulk of the snows now positioned into WI and the Great Lakes (as of 9:45am CST). However, there still remains some light snow activity impacting the northeastern portions of the state, which will likely be the case through a majority of the day. The biggest threat at this point in time are the very strong winds that are lagging behind the system. Blizzard conditions will remain throughout the day across southern/western MN into the far eastern Dakotas.
Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the far eastern Dakotas into western/southern MN, which run until 6pm CST this evening. Winter Weather Advisories also are in effect for the central Dakotas and northeastern MN for the blowing snow and reduced visibility risk that continues to plague the region. There are Winter Weather Advisories for northwestern SD, which are for the incoming snows tonight into Monday.
With the core of the system lifting northeastward across the Great Lakes and deepening, this is helping to tighten the pressure gradient across the eastern two-thirds of the region. This has resulted in very strong winds behind the system with peak wind gusts occurring through the day today and commonly gusting over 40mph and at times to 50-55mph, especially over southeastern MN. Even with the bulk of the system passing, ground blizzard conditions will remain today that will cause significant reductions in visibilities (whiteout conditions) and blowing/drifting snow. Watch for the winds to gradually wane heading into tonight with most areas under 20mph for gusts by noon Monday.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Monday: Lighter snow showers will still hang around in northeastern MN through the day, though gradually winding down as the day progresses into evening. Elsewhere across MN, a few flurries cannot be ruled out. We’ll watch a weaker wave of snow lift into western SD mainly after 6pm CST this evening and quickly push eastward across the central and northern portions of the state into far southern MN overnight into Monday morning. Some scattered snow showers, possibly mixing with patchy freezing drizzle will be possible further south across southern SD. This won’t be a long-lasting wave and should exit to the east of the area by mid-afternoon Monday.
With temperatures vastly below freezing during the time of these light snows, expect the snow to easily accumulate with amounts ranging between 2-4″ within the circled region below. There is some very weak frontogenesis that will set up within the same area tonight, so we can’t rule out locally higher amounts of 5-6″ of snow. The system will be weakening further as it progresses across far southern MN, so amounts drop off the further east your located. Also, there will be a sharp snow gradient on the north and south ends of the snow which could mean the difference between no snow and a couple of inches.
Another couple of waves of snow are anticipated to impact the heart of the region Monday night progressing through the day Tuesday and even into Wednesday morning. The first wave will bring scattered light snows to southern ND/northern SD Monday night that pushes into central/southern MN Tuesday morning, then the second wave quickly follows into ND and far northern SD Tuesday night and eventually central MN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. These snows aren’t necessarily expected to be heavy by any means, but temperatures will still stay far below freezing so it’ll likely easily accumulate and be powdery in nature.
Snowfall over a 24 hour period from Monday night through Tuesday evening: We’re looking at a greater focus for snow across ND/far northern SD into central MN during this timeframe which will lead to amounts ranging anywhere from 1″ to as much as 4″ of snow. Do note that this does not cover the whole event and additional snow is likely into central/southern MN Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The further south you are located in SD, the less likely you are to receive accumulating snow.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: With these multiple waves working through the region this week, expect liquid amounts to generally hover between a 0.25-0.5″ with locally higher amounts a real possibility. There’s a more substantial system to track Friday into the overnight that could bring an additional round of accumulating snows to the region. However, this system is still 5 days out and fluctuations in track and intensity will be likely. So definitely check back over the coming week!
Temperatures over the next four days: With the storm system lifting east and colder air funneling behind it, temperatures will likely remain very cold today with single digits expected for most areas, excluding ND where negative high temperatures are more likely. By Monday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the negatives across the whole region with an extreme emphasis on cold in ND. Low temperatures will hover in the -10s and -20s Monday morning in ND. Wind chills will be even colder and likely dip towards -40 in northern ND with -20s expected elsewhere.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!