Good morning everyone! Our weaker system is continuing to work northeastward this morning (as of 9:50am CST) but not without providing additional light snows to the northern tier of MN. Generally speaking, the rest of the region is mainly dry at this time. However, stay prepared for an incoming winter storm for the southeastern portions of the region this evening into tonight that will bring a heavy dose of snow with blizzard conditions.
Blizzard Warnings are in effect for far southeastern SD into the southern third of MN, which run until Sunday evening. Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for the eastern portions of ND, far northeastern SD and northwestern MN, not specifically for falling snow but rather for blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities as this system works into the region this evening into tonight. The same can be said for additional portions of eastern SD and just east of Minot/Bismarck where Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow have been issued.
Behind the wave today that is still affecting the northern portions of MN, we’ll watch for this more significant system to work towards the southeastern areas with a heavy band of snow lifting in with strong winds. Shown below is the area we continue to highlight in particular for the development of this deformation band of heavy snow, with the greatest emphasis on this snow coming this evening through the overnight. Substantial levels of frontogenesis in southeastern MN leads us to believe that conditions in these parts will rapidly deteriorate as the snows work in coupled with strong winds. However, this band of snow will be quite narrow, so a small shift in track (which can still occur) can mean a big difference in snow totals.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Sunday: Scattered light snows from the residual weaker system will linger in northern MN through the day, but watch for our potent storm system to lift in from the south and bring a deformation band of heavy snow grazing far southeastern SD by 3pm CST and then pushing into southern MN between 4-5pm CST. Snows will overspread southern MN through the evening hours with the heaviest snows coming in southeastern MN overnight. Some freezing rain may mix in at times initially in far southeastern MN, but will be overcome with dynamic cooling and transition all the mixed precipitation to snow. Some lingering energy dropping southward into ND and northern MN overnight will bring scattered snow showers that likely hangs around northern MN into Sunday morning. The band of heavy snow overnight will quickly move northeast and should have most of this activity out of eastern MN around 6am CST.
Snow accumulation through Sunday evening: The bulk of the snow through this period will come with our significant winter storm this evening into tonight across southeastern MN where 6″+ amounts are expected south and east of Minneapolis. A potential sliver of 12″+ a couple counties wide is possible, including the Rochester area. To the north, the weak energy will keep scattered snow chances around with 1-3″ of snow still likely in the northern third of MN. There will be a sharp cutoff with a tight snow gradient on both the north and south side of the snow swath in southeastern MN this evening/night. Any slight shifts in track can mean the difference between a few inches and a foot of snow.
As the core of the system lifts northeastward, it will rapidly strengthen and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in very strong winds both during and behind the system. Peak wind gusts will occur during the day Sunday which will commonly gust over 40mph and at times to 50-55mph. Blizzard conditions in southern MN are expected during this time that will cause significant reductions in visibilities (whiteout conditions) and blowing/drifting snow. While little if any in the way of snow falls in the eastern Dakotas, the strong winds will pick up the snow already on the ground and likely result in ground blizzards. Even after the snow has come to an end, ground blizzard conditions will remain likely through the day Sunday given this timeframe for the strongest winds.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Sunday through 6pm CST Monday: Some light flurries will still hang around in MN through the remainder of Sunday before dissipating. However, a weak wave of snow will lift into northwestern SD and far southwestern ND shortly after 6pm CST Sunday and quickly push eastward across northern SD into southern MN overnight into Monday morning. Some scattered snow showers will be possible further south across southern SD. This won’t be a long-lasting wave and should exit to the east of the area by mid-Monday afternoon.
With temperatures vastly below zero during the time of these light snows, expect snows to easily accumulate with amounts ranging between a general 1-3″ (locally higher amounts possible) in northern SD into far southern MN.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: You can definitely tell where the deformation band will setup this evening into tonight as 0.5-1.25″ amounts are likely in southeastern MN through the next week, most of this coming through tonight. Elsewhere, 0.1-0.5″ liquid amounts seem reasonable as there won’t be any big systems after tonight (at least through the upcoming week).
Temperatures over the next four days: This weekend’s system will help bring in additional very cold, arctic air to the region. By Monday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the negatives for the vast majority of the region with an extreme emphasis on cold in ND. Low temperatures will hover in the -10s and -20s Monday morning in ND. Wind chills will be even colder and likely dip into the -40s in ND with -20s expected elsewhere.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!