Good morning everyone! A band of moderate to heavy snow is starting to get its act together across the western third of KS while moderate rains and embedded storms are present along its southeastern periphery in southern KS as of 9:20am CST. A dose of heavier rain can also be noted in eastern IA that is pushing northeastward along with freezing rain mixing in at times along its northern flank. Elsewhere, areas of fog, mist and drizzle are more common across the remainder of KS into much of MO. This is only the beginning of an active weekend shaping up across the region as the deformation band in western KS continues to develop and lifts northeastward through the day into tonight. Enhanced wind gusts as the low pressure deepens should also be anticipated.
Blizzard Warnings were hoisted across the heart of the region yesterday evening and stretch from western/northern KS through southeastern NE and western/northern IA. This is for the developing deformation band coupled with strong winds that will lead to significant reductions in visibilities along with blowing/drifting snow and blizzard conditions. Areas that likely receive little to no snow have been placed under Wind Advisories until Sunday, effective for southeastern KS/IA and much of MO.
Today will definitely be the most active day over the next several days with thunderstorms and even some of those being strong within the warm sector of our potent storm system this afternoon. Southeastern MO remains the area in particular to watch for the greatest storm potential, with severe storms a concern especially in the Boot Heel. CAPE or instability is still somewhat limiting and will likely hinder how strong these storms can become (best focus south and east of the region), but with copious amounts of wind energy aloft, this will likely be more of a damaging wind threat (especially in the Boot Heel and points south and east). A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Further north across the remainder of eastern MO into far southeastern IA, these areas will be located closer to the surface low and any storms here can produce some small hail. Watch for the greatest risk of severe weather to hover between 12-5pm CST.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: Our main event is starting to get its act together in western KS and we expect a heavy band of snow to lift northeastward across southern NE and northern KS through the afternoon hours, then western IA late in the afternoon and evening hours. A zone of freezing rain will still be possible in southeastern NE into northern IA during the day before the deformation band of snow pulls out of KS and NE by midnight, but fills into a majority of IA through the nighttime hours. Some light flurries/snow showers will be possible in northern MO tonight. Further south across the warm sector of the system, showers and embedded storms will be dominant across eastern KS into MO through the morning with storm coverage building in eastern/southeastern MO and eastern IA this afternoon, some of which may be strong. The cold front and its associated low pressure system will continue eastward tonight and pull the backside snows out of IA around 6am CST Sunday.
As discussed over the last couple of days, the other threat besides the snow and severe weather will be the very strong winds that accompany the storm system. As the low pressure system lifts northeastward and deepens, the pressure gradient will tighten across the region, resulting in strong winds developing southwest to northeast through the day but especially tonight into Sunday. Wind gusts will easily top 30-35mph for most of the region with gusts likely exceeding 40-50mph+ into IA Sunday, even after the storm has since passed. Blizzard conditions are to be expected in the blizzard-warned areas, including whiteout conditions at times and blowing/drifting snow. Areas across KS will have much lighter winds come Sunday, however. Regardless, even after the snow passes stronger winds remaining in the northeastern portions of the region Sunday will keep conditions extremely hazardous with potential ground blizzards.
Additional snowfall through early Sunday: A narrow corridor of heavy snow ranging between 8-12″ is expected stretching from north-central KS through southeastern NE into west-central/north-central IA today through tonight. Locally higher amounts of 12″+ are likely in the red-zone area, including the Omaha area. Given the compact nature of this snow and any slight deviations in track (which can still occur), one area can receive 8″+ while another a county away may receive less than 3″. There still remains some low confidence in central KS/MO (Salina and Des Moines areas) due to such a tight snow gradient setup along this corridor, so any slight shifts in track can drastically alter amounts forecasted in these areas. The European model trended slightly further south and east, but it is an outlier compared to the other data; Something to keep in mind.
Freezing rain will still remain a potential threat through the day today, with a light additional glaze of ice (under 0.1″) possible in north-central KS, southern NE into western/northern IA.
After this system passes, we’ll note a less active stretch of inclement weather as a potent trough will position itself over the region, shunting enhanced precipitation risks further south and east. Regardless, a weak wave of snow will be possible Sunday night into Monday across the extreme northern portions of the region. Current track keeps the snow mostly north of NE, but brings it down into northern IA where a couple inches of dry, powdery snow will be possible.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: You can definitely pick out where the deformation band sets up across the heart of the region. Generally speaking, the heaviest precipitation will remain confined to the Boot Heel where 1-2″ of liquid will be likely with precipitation ranging between 0.5-1.5″ for most in KS, southeastern NE, northwestern MO and much of IA.
High temperatures over the next four days: A very fine line between warmth to the southeast and cold in the northwestern half of the region will be prevalent today. However, temperatures come Sunday will struggle to rise out of the lower teens in IA/NE with the likelihood of single digits for highs Monday in the same areas.
Low temperatures over the next four days: After the passage of this storm system, low temperatures will dip into the negatives across most of KS/IA Monday and Tuesday morning thanks to a blast of arctic air and fresh snowpack on the ground.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!