Good afternoon everyone! Since this morning, snows have expanded across a good portion of southeastern ND, eastern SD into western MN. This will continue to be the case through the evening hours while also lifting further into the state of MN.
Winter Weather Advisories remain hoisted for most of eastern SD, southeastern ND and northwestern MN for the snows that are currently impacting the area (as of 4:20pm CST). However, this wave will be relatively weak compared to the next system which will bring a dose of heavy snow to southeastern MN Saturday evening into the nighttime hours. Because of this, coupled with increasing winds as the system deepens, Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the southern third of MN. Newly issued Blizzard Warnings by the National Weather Service are now in effect for far southwestern MN during the Saturday night through Sunday timeframe. We wouldn’t be surprised to see additional Blizzard Warnings issued across additional portions of the southern third of MN with time.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Saturday: The wave impacting the region with light to moderate snows currently will be relatively slow moving while it pushes eastward into tonight. There can be some additional banding that lifts into southern MN tonight given some enhanced frontogenesis, but watch for warmer air aloft to work in by the morning hours that helps to transition some of this snow to light freezing rain/drizzle in far southern MN. Areas of snow will still be lingering across the remainder of MN and southeastern SD by the end of this loop.
Areas of freezing fog are expected to develop across the western Dakotas tonight into Saturday morning that could lead to some slick spots. However, by the noon hour Saturday, most of the fog that does develop will have since eroded.
Behind the wave tonight through much of Saturday, our biggest system will begin to work towards the southeastern portions of the region with a heavy band of snow developing and strong winds. Shown below is the area we are highlighting in particular for the development of this deformation band of heavy snow, with the greatest emphasis on this snow coming Saturday evening through the overnight. Substantial levels of frontogenesis in southeastern MN leads us to believe that conditions in these parts will rapidly deteriorate as the snows work in coupled with the strong winds. Data is definitely eyeing this part of the region for the heavier snows given the track of the system remaining 150 miles to the south and east. However, given this band will be quite narrow, a small shift in track can mean a big difference in snow totals.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Saturday through 12pm CST Sunday: Scattered light snows from the residual weaker system will still be possible across most of MN into southeastern SD during the afternoon hours Saturday, but watch for out potent storm system to lift in from the south and bring a deformation band of heavy snow grazing far southeastern SD by 3pm CST and then pushing into southern MN shortly thereafter. Snows will overspread southern MN through the remainder of Saturday with the heaviest of the snows coming in southeastern MN overnight. The band will quickly move east overnight and should have most of this activity out of eastern MN by 6am CST Sunday. However, some lingering energy will bring down scattered snow showers across ND into northern MN overnight that likely hangs around in MN through at least Sunday morning.
Total snow accumulation from both waves of snow through Sunday morning: The wave moving through now will generally dump lighter snow amounts as it works eastward tonight with a general 1-3″ from the eastern Dakotas into MN. However, a greater emphasis for snow within a stripe just east of Eureka/Pierre northeastward through Fargo into northern MN will lead to 3-4″ amounts. The second, more potent wave as previously discussed will bring a thump of snow to southeastern MN. Snowfall amounts in these areas Saturday evening through the overnight will bring 6″+ with a potential sliver of 12″+ a couple counties wide just north/west of Rochester. There will be a very sharp cutoff with tight snow gradient on both the north and south side of the snow swath Saturday evening/night. Any shift in track can mean the difference between a few inches and a foot.
As the core of the system lifts northeastward, it will rapidly strengthen and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in very strong winds both during and behind the system. Peak wind gusts will occur during the day Sunday which will likely gust at times towards the 45mph mark. Blizzard conditions in southern MN will be likely during this time that results in reduced visibilities, whiteout conditions and blowing/drifting snow. Even after the snow largely comes to an end, ground blizzard conditions likely remain given the strongest winds come Sunday.
This weekend’s system will help bring in additional very cold air to the region. By Monday morning, temperatures will have largely fallen into the negatives for virtually the entire area with an extreme emphasis on cold in ND. Low temperatures will hover in the -10s and -20s Monday morning in ND. Wind chills will be even colder and likely dipping into the -40s in ND with -20s expected in SD and MN.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!