Good afternoon everyone! Areas of snow are currently impacting the central portions of NE as of 2:55pm CST with isolated areas of sprinkles also lifting through central KS. Off to the east, we note scattered showers progressing across portions of southern MO. This is only the beginning of an active weekend shaping up across the region with the light rains expanding in coverage tonight while freezing rain/drizzle potential will increase in the eastern two-thirds of NE into IA. However, the main wave will bring a narrow, heavy deformation band of snow that skirts through portions of the region with enhanced wind gusts as the low pressure system associated with this wave deepens.
We’re starting to get some Blizzard Warnings to pop up along a stretch from southwestern/northern KS into southeastern NE and far southwestern IA for Saturday’s snow event (with strong winds lingering into Sunday). Winds will be howling for these areas, resulting in significant reductions in visibilities along with blowing/drifting snow. We wouldn’t be surprised to see these warnings extend even further into northern IA.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday: Scattered snow showers continue to work northeastward across central/northeastern NE also into far northwestern IA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening before freezing rain/drizzle becomes more prevalent across the eastern two-thirds of NE. Light rain showers will gain coverage, though should still remain scattered, across MO, KS and southern IA into tonight while freezing rain/drizzle potential lifts into locations generally along and north of I-80 in IA starting this evening. Freezing rain/drizzle can still remain as far south as the northern two rows of counties in KS tonight. The main wave with its associated low pressure will begin to lift into southwestern KS by the end of this loop and develop a deformation band across eastern CO that starts to progress into the northwestern tip of KS and southwestern NE.
Saturday will definitely be the most active day over the next several days with thunderstorms and even some of those being strong within the warm sector of our potent storm system Saturday afternoon. Southeastern MO is being highlighted in particular for the greatest storm potential, with severe storms a concern especially in the Boot Heel. CAPE is still remaining rather modest and will likely limit how much strong storms we can observe, but with copious amounts of wind energy aloft, this will likely be more of a damaging wind threat (especially in the Boot Heel and points south and east). A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Watch for the best risk of severe weather to hover between 11-5pm CST in the circled region below.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Saturday through 6am CST Sunday: Our main event moves through the area during this timeframe with a heavy band of snow developing over western KS Saturday morning and lifting northeastward across southern NE and northern KS during the afternoon hours, then into western IA late in the afternoon and evening hours. A zone of freezing rain is still expected in eastern NE into northern IA during the day. The deformation band of snow will eventually pull out of KS and NE by midnight, but fill into a majority of IA through the nighttime hours. Further south across the warm sector of the system, showers and storms will be most dominant in far eastern KS into MO during the day Saturday. As previously stated, watch for some of those storms to pack a punch with heavy rain at times, mainly in southeastern MO. The cold front and associated surface low pressure system will continue eastward Saturday night and pull the backside snow showers out of IA by 6am CST Sunday.
Another threat besides the snow and severe weather with this system will be the very strong winds that accompany it. The low pressure system as it lifts northeastward will quickly deepen and tighten the pressure gradient across the region, resulting in very strong winds Saturday but especially Sunday. Wind gusts will easily top 30-35mph for most of the region with gusts likely exceeding 40-45mph+ into IA Sunday, even after the storm has passed. Blizzard conditions are expected for some as a result of these winds, especially those that receive snow from this wave and then the intense wind gusts during and afterwards. Areas across KS will have much lighter winds Sunday. Regardless, even after the snow passes, stronger winds remaining will keep conditions extremely hazardous with potential ground blizzards.
Total snowfall through early Sunday: Not much in the way of changes from this morning’s update with the exception being lessening amounts in central NE due to snows that have already fallen since then. A narrow corridor of heavy snow ranging between 8-12″ is expected stretching from western/north-central S through southeastern NE into northwestern/northern IA Saturday through Saturday night. Locally higher amounts are possible in the red-zoned region. Given the compact nature of this snow and any slight deviations in track, one area can receive 8″+ while another a county away may receive less than 3″. Central KS/IA remain the lower confidence areas (Salina and Des Moines areas) due to these locations being on the snow gradient, so any shifts in track can drastically alter amounts forecasted in these areas.
Freezing rain forecast through Saturday reveals a light glaze of ice is anticipated for central/eastern NE into locations along and north of the I-80 corridor in IA. Many areas will stay at 0.1″ of ice or less, but amounts ranging between 0.1-0.25″ will be possible and most likely in northern IA.
Total precipitation through Sunday: You can definitely pick out where the deformation band sets up across the heart of the region. Generally speaking, the heaviest precipitation will remain confined to the Boot Heel where 1-2″ of liquid will be likely with precipitation ranging between 0.5-1″ for most of KS, southeastern NE, far northwestern MO and much of IA.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!