Good afternoon everyone! It still remains on the quieter side this afternoon with some lingering snow showers across the northern portions of ND as of 3:35pm CST. The weak energy associated with this batch of snow showers will lift eastward this evening into tonight, but should generally not amount to much of anything but a coating of snow. We’ll work in some more energy as late afternoon progresses into early evening across southwestern/southern SD, slowly expanding north and eastward with time tonight into eastern SD and in scattered quantities, the southern third of MN. Southwest flow aloft (as the region lays between an upper-level trough to the west and a ridge to the east) will allow for multiple disturbances to work through the area and lead to consistent rounds of snow, especially over the southeastern portions of the region. Watch for snow coverage to expand once again (after weakening somewhat late tonight/early Friday morning) through the morning hours Friday across SD that pushes into ND around the noon hour and northwestern MN by mid-afternoon. The snows will engulf a large sum of the region, potentially being moderate in nature as it progresses eastward into the remainder of MN Friday night. As Friday night wears on, the western edge of the light snow shield will also lift east and gradually coming to an end for the western two-thirds of the Dakotas by 6am CST Saturday. Warmer air working in aloft over the southern two county rows of MN will allow for the possibility of a light freezing rain/drizzle Friday night. Here’s a look at the simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday:
Total snowfall through 6am CST Saturday: We are looking for at least light widespread snow accumulations across the Dakotas into much of MN through this timespan. Given periods of frontogenesis showing up with this system, the circled areas below are targeted for the highest accumulations ranging between 3-6″ of snow. Accumulations of 1-3″ of snow are likely for most of the remainder of the Dakotas (excluding far western ND where <1″ is likely) into the northwestern half of MN. The freezing rain/drizzle threat in far southern MN will lead to ice accretion generally under 0.1″.
Behind these waves our biggest system will begin to work towards the area Saturday afternoon and a heavy band of snow will develop with strong winds and potentially blizzard conditions at times are possible. Shown below is the area we are highlighting in particular for the development of this deformation band of heavy snow, with the greatest emphasis on this snow coming Saturday night. Substantial levels of frontogenesis in southeastern MN in particular lead us to believe that conditions in these parts will likely rapidly deteriorate as the snows work in coupled with the strong winds. Data at this time surprising remains in fairly good agreement on the track of this system (which will run through eastern IA/far northern IL). The heaviest snows usually line up 150 miles north and west of the low’s center, lining up quite well with the area highlighted below. However, the band of snow will likely be narrow, so a small shift in track can mean a big difference in snow totals.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Saturday through 6pm CST Sunday: Snows from the residual weaker system will still be located across the central and northern portions of MN Saturday morning into the early afternoon, but watch for our potent storm system to lift in from the south and bring a deformation band of snow starting in far southeastern SD around noon Saturday and pushing into southern MN shortly thereafter. Snows will overspread southern MN through the remainder of Saturday with the heaviest of the snows coming in southeastern MN overnight. By 6am CST Sunday, the heaviest of the snow will be exiting eastern MN, but lingering energy will bring down scattered snow showers from the north into northeastern ND and northern MN, which likely stay around through the day Sunday.
As the core of the system lifts northeastward, it will rapidly strengthen and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in very strong winds both during and behind the system. Peak wind gusts will occur during the day Sunday which will likely gust towards the 45-50mph mark. Blizzard conditions will be possible during this time that results in reduced visibilities along with blowing and drifting snow.
Here’s a look at snowfall from this weekend’s system via the European Model: Please note that this is not an official forecast, but could similarly play out to what is shown below. We continue to agree with the more aggressive solution from the European Model given the strength of the system and the dynamics at hand. A likely band of 6-12″+ is looking more likely within southeastern MN (area previously circled above). Do note that some guidance isn’t as keen on these amounts and due to this storm still being two days out, watch for any slight fluctuations in track that could deviate what is shown below. At this current time, the vast majority of the Dakotas and northwestern MN look to stay clear of the heavier snows (some receiving none at all).
This weekend’s system will help bring in additional very cold air to the region. By Monday morning, temperatures will have largely fallen into the negatives for virtually every area of the Northern Plains with an extreme emphasis on cold in ND. Low temperatures will hover in the -10s and -20s Monday morning in ND. Wind chills will be even cooler and likely dipping into the -40s in ND with -20s expected for SD and MN.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!