Good afternoon everyone! Just like this morning, we are noting some lingering patchy snow showers across the western portions of NE as of 3:10pm CST. Over the last few hours there has been some increasing convection across central KS that will lift northward and help to enhance precipitation through the evening hours across the western two-thirds of NE. Also a few persisting showers are impacting southeastern MO, likely remaining the case through the day into tonight as well.
With increasing moisture over the relatively cold ground into the southwestern portions of the region tonight into Friday morning, expect areas of dense fog and freezing fog to develop over the western half of KS that will likely lead to some slick spots. This fog will be very slow to erode and likely persists in areas through the morning hours Friday, with increasing pockets of light freezing drizzle activity lifting northeastward through Friday night. The threat for fog will only increase from there Friday night into Saturday morning across KS, but by that point temperatures will be above freezing.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday: Areas of light snow with perhaps some moderate bands at times will gain coverage this evening into tonight across the western half of NE while areas of drizzle/light freezing drizzle also develop into KS, but more as the overnight progresses into Friday morning. Further east, IA will largely remain on the drier side though we can’t rule out the far northwest corner of the state getting clipped by light snow tonight with rain showers in southern MO. The rain showers in southern MO should stay light as the precipitation will be battling low-level dry air. Areas of light snow remain prevalent in the northwestern half of NE through the day Friday with the freezing drizzle activity that would be positioned in the northern half of KS Friday morning lifting into eastern NE. Areas of drizzle and light showers are expected in KS and MO by the afternoon hours. Watch for the freezing drizzle to expand into IA Friday evening and especially the overnight with a developing band of snow in the High Plains late in the night into early Saturday morning.
Total snowfall through 6am CST Saturday: The best snow coverage will reside in the northwestern half of NE where a general 1-3″ of snow is expected. There will be a narrow corridor just west of North Platte towards Valentine, NE that likely observe 4-6″ of snow, but definitely remember that this will be quite confined and depend heavily on where any frontogenesis sets up. Ice accretion should remain on the lighter side through this event, and generally under 0.1″ (locally more) in northern KS, eastern NE and much of IA.
Saturday will definitely be the most active day over the next several days with thunderstorms and even some of those being strong within the warm sector of our potent storm system, and a narrow axis of heavy snow along the system’s western periphery. Southeastern MO is being highlighted for the greatest storm potential, with severe storms being an increasing concern for the Boot Heel. Pockets of heavier rain will lift into this area late Friday night and increase into Saturday morning. These could produce pockets of hail and isolated storms, but the better ingredients that will make up the severe threat in the afternoon include modest CAPE (potential instability) and the copious amounts of wind energy aloft. This will likely make for a damaging wind threat as the cold front pushes through with even a few isolated tornadoes not being ruled out. Watch for the greatest threat of severe weather to hover between 12-5pm CST Saturday in southeastern MO, especially the Boot Heel.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Saturday through 9am CST Sunday: Our main event moves through the area during this timeframe with a band of snow expanding across central NE and western KS/IA through the day Saturday, then working into the remainder of IA Saturday night. Some backside snow showers will be possible in northwestern MO. Further south across the warm sector of the system, showers and storms will be most dominant in far eastern KS into MO while the severe threat remains confined to southeastern MO during the afternoon hours Saturday. As previously stated, watch for some of those storms to pack a punch with heavy rain at times. The cold front and associated surface low pressure system will continue eastward Saturday night and pull the backside snow showers out of IA by 9am CST Sunday.
Another threat besides the snow and severe weather with this system will be the strong winds that accompany it. The low pressure system as it lifts northeastward will quickly deepen and tighten the pressure gradient across the region, resulting in very strong winds Saturday through Sunday night. Wind gusts will easily top 40mph especially the eastern half of the region Saturday night into Sunday while gusts exceeding 50mph is looking like a real possibility into IA, even after the storm has passed. Blizzard conditions will be likely for some as a result of these winds, especially those that receive snow from this wave and then the intense wind gusts during and afterwards.
In general, not much in the way of changes from this morning’s updated graphic…still highlighting from western KS through eastern NE into western/central IA for the core of the heaviest snow potential. Given the compact nature of this system, the snows that accompany it will be draped within a tight corridor as they lift northeastward. A narrow axis of snow accumulation topping 6″ will be easy within the corridor with even 12″+ amounts a real possibility. However, the exact placement of this band is yet to be fully determined, but to give you an idea we have provided a modeled snowfall map from the European model through this event. Please note that the model output is not a forecast, but something to keep in mind. Based on frontogenesis from other guidance, the band shown in the European model is highlighted well with a heavier emphasis in western/central IA. Changes will be possible so be sure to check back often!
Total precipitation through Sunday: Watch for heavier rains in southeastern MO that will likely exceed 1″ for most with precipitation amounts ranging between 0.5-1.5″ expected over much of KS, southeastern NE, northwestern MO and into a majority of IA. We’ll look for a drier trend to come after the passage of this weekend’s system with only minor events likely at least through mid-next week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!