Good morning everyone! Areas of patchy dense freezing fog can be noted across southeastern MN as of 10:15am CST with a few patches also hanging around in portions of southeastern SD. We expect this to continue to be the case through the duration of the day with fog coverage increasing once again heading into tonight and Sunday morning.
Simulation of fog through 6am CST Sunday: Areas of fog will remain likely in far southeastern MN through the day while some patches will be possible in the eastern portions of ND. This is a result of increasing low-level saturation and with snowpack on the ground providing temperatures stay generally below freezing in these areas, expect some slick spots. Low-level moisture continuing to stream in from the south (relative humidities shown in the second image below) out ahead of our next storm system will promote freezing drizzle risks as well in northern ND but especially into southern/eastern MN as the day wears into tonight and evening Sunday morning. If traveling definitely be cautious as freezing drizzle/fog risks will be enhanced through the weekend, resulting in slick spots on many roadways.
Simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: A disturbance to the north will likely clip the northern portions of ND and far northern MN with flurries but also some patchy drizzle. The fog/drizzle risks are highlighted well by the NAM3km model shown below (depicted by the green/pink specks) in southern/eastern MN as this area will have the greatest low-level saturation.
Here’s a look at the fog potential (darker shades) heading through the morning hours Sunday, with an emphasis on southeastern ND, northeastern SD into a majority of MN where freezing drizzle/mist will already be a problem from the increasing low-level moisture. Slick spots will be possible in these areas as most, if not all, will be below 32ºF.
All this low-level moisture lifting into the region (enhancing the freezing fog/drizzle risks across the region this weekend) is due to the emergence of our next storm system which will lift out of the Rockies into the western Dakotas starting Sunday morning. Convection will spread eastward through the day Sunday and push into areas further east across the eastern Dakotas into MN Sunday afternoon/evening. Accumulating snows are to be expected with this system, especially in ND and northern MN where colder air will hang on while a mixed bag of snow, freezing rain and rain is likely further south.
Simulated radar from 12am CST tonight through 12am CST Monday night: Areas of drizzle continue/develop ahead of our next storm system that pushes into the western portions of the area Sunday morning but especially during the afternoon hours. Look for the first flakes to start flying in northwestern ND as early as 4am CST Sunday before expanding east as the day progresses. Accumulating snows will be prevalent in ND and northern MN late Sunday into Sunday night. Further south, watch for areas of freezing rain in eastern SD and southwestern MN during the same timeframe, gradually transitioning to snow with colder air working in as Sunday night progresses. It’ll take some time for this system to lift out, continuing backside snow showers in ND, northeastern SD and northern MN into Monday morning, then eventually just northern MN into Monday evening. The bulk of this snow will finally exit out of northeastern MN around 12am CST Monday night. Also, breezy conditions will accompany this system as it pushes across the region, so lower visibilities along with blowing/drifting snow will be common. Travel conditions will continue to be quite difficult Sunday through Monday given the snows north and mixed precipitation south.
Latest snowfall forecast from Sunday morning through Monday evening: Guidance (shown in the second image below) continues to waver on the southern edge of the snow along with the setup of distinct bands across the region. Due to these circumstances, this is a lower confidence forecast mainly for locations stretching along the ND/SD border towards central MN and points south as some mixing with other precipitation types will be likely. Regardless, there is growing confidence for a band of 6-12″ of snow across the northern two-thirds of ND into northern MN while locally higher amounts of greater than 12″ will be possible in the northern third of ND. Essentially, the further north you are located in the Northern Plains, the greater snow amounts you should expect. Model guidance shown in the second image does suggest a heavier band of snow near the Fargo area and points just south, but given inconsistency in placement, have opted out of extending the heavier totals further south in these areas than they currently are. Freezing rain and sleet in the eastern two-thirds of SD into southern MN likely will lead to a light glaze of ice generally under 0.1″ before the transition to backside snow showers can put down areas of 1-3″ of snow.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Precipitation is looking to run above average, especially the further east you head with many picking up more than 0.5″ of liquid. The European model also suggests a late upcoming work week storm system that could bring accumulating snows to the southeastern portions of the region, but given the range and the potential for this storm to become more suppressed as suggested by the GFS model, this is not set in stone.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Quite a temperature gradient remaining across SD today with the southern portions of the state flirting with 60ºF while the northern parts will deal with temperatures below freezing. Behind the storm system late Sunday into Monday, expect a re-emergence in colder temperatures once more with negatives for highs in ND come Monday and overnight lows dipping to -20ºF Monday night.
Wind chills Sunday through Wednesday morning are looking to stay below 0ºF across the northwestern portions of the area, with wind chills ranging from -20 to -35ºF in ND. Wind chills dipping below -20ºF will be common in SD and western MN starting Monday morning as this blast of arctic air settles into the region.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Breezier conditions will pick up Sunday into Monday as our next storm system works into the region, bringing wind gusts of 30-35mph.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!