Good morning everyone! Many are waking up this morning as of 8:05am CST to areas of dense fog across KS, MO, IA and southeastern MO. This is a result of warmer air lifting northward over the colder ground and areas with a deeper snowpack, resulting in the development of advection fog that has reduced visibilities in many of these locations. Most areas are above freezing, so slick spots aren’t much of a concern. However, there are still some areas in eastern IA that remain below freezing at this time, so slick spots will be possible over the next few hours before continued warmer air lifts into these areas allowing for temperatures to rise above freezing. There is a snowpack in place across much of IA as well, enhancing colder pavement temperatures and slick spot risks. Dense Fog Advisories (shown below) are in effect across much of KS, south-central NE and southeastern MO. Do take into account that while some of the previously mentioned areas aren’t under an advisories, areas of dense fog will remain possible.
As we progress into the late morning and especially the afternoon hours, the fog will start to dissipate over the southern and western locations, including south-central NE, much of KS and the southern two-thirds of MO. Most of the fog by mid-afternoon will have lifted back into IA where a snowpack is present. While not a large threat this afternoon, the snowpack will keep pavement temperatures down and could allow for a few remaining slick spots on untreated surfaces.
Temperatures will warm above freezing for all of IA by the noon hour today, but watch for some icy roads there with the freezing fog over the next few hours. Elsewhere will be too warm for slick spots despite foggy conditions, but as the fog lifts northward this afternoon many will be treated to temperatures in the 60s in parts of NE, KS and southern MO! Also, look for mostly sunny skies in the High Plains today as this part of the region will remain west of the low-level moisture that will affect the eastern two-thirds of the Central Plains.
We are eyeing an additional risk for areas of fog tonight into Sunday for locations across southeastern NE, eastern KS and into much of IA/MO. This will be especially true for southeastern NE into IA where there remains greater snowpack. The HRRR model shown below highlights this potential well with lower visibilities (depicted in the darker shades) showing up across the aforementioned areas. Temperatures will be warmer (well above freezing) during this timespan so there isn’t much concern for slick spots. While the greatest risks for dense fog reside within the red shaded area tonight into the day Sunday, patchy fog will remain possible into the eastern two-thirds of KS and MO.
The NAM3km model (shown below through the entirety of the weekend) depicts the threat for areas of fog quite well, but also drizzle and mist: This is shown by the patchy green specks across southeastern NE, eastern NE, IA and northern/western MO as additional low-level moisture from the south works into these areas. As depicted below along with the fog risks, areas of mist and drizzle will be likely through the weekend, but especially as we progress into tonight and Sunday. Measurable precipitation will remain rather light and generally under 0.05″ across the aforementioned areas.
Taking a look at atmospheric soundings across the Kansas City area we’ll find the culprit for the areas of fog, drizzle and mist that will affect portions of the region through the weekend: Most columns of the atmosphere will be unsaturated and dry. However, the lower-levels of the atmosphere (900mb and lower) will have a surge in moisture that leads to saturation, resulting in low clouds, fog and mist/drizzle. This will be a common theme through most of the weekend in southeastern NE, eastern KS, northern/western MO and into IA, so while little measurable precipitation is expected, we will continue to deal with these lingering threats.
All of this northward surging moisture and warm air comes out ahead of our next system which looks to impact parts of the region Sunday evening through Monday morning. Scattered rain showers will be likely in northern NE/IA Sunday evening/night, possibly mixing with freezing rain though that threat looks to remain mostly north. By Monday morning, additional light shower activity will develop into eastern IA/MO that gradually spreads eastward and exits out of the region into the Ohio Valley mid-afternoon with temperatures falling sharply behind the cold front further west.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: There are additional systems to track for the middle of next week as an active pattern develops (especially for eastern areas) due to a tighter temperature gradient setting up. We still favor the eastern portions of the region for the greatest coverage of precipitation during this time, with heavy liquid amounts of 1-2″ possible into MO. The European Model (shown below) is the more aggressive with precipitation in NE than other guidance, so this area will need watched as changes in track could lead to drier trends.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Warmer overnight lows are expected east Sunday and Monday mornings, but after the storm system passes through the region a colder blast of air will follow Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the single digits far north to near 32ºF in the south.
Wind forecast over the next four days: We’ll work in breezy conditions ahead of an approaching system through Monday with gusts as high as 30-35mph.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!