Good afternoon everyone! We continue to track areas of scattered light snow generally located in the western two-thirds of KS into southwestern NE as of 3:30pm CST. Not expecting much in the way of any accumulation as this activity gradually fades and lifts north with time this evening into tonight. However, a very light coating will be possible, mainly in the areas that are observing snow in the western third of KS.
We’ll watch our main system lift into the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and bring a round of widespread snow. Most areas will be susceptible to some form of snow accumulation before all is set and done, but given a couple areas of enhanced frontogenesis and weak warm air advection shown below (in northwestern/central IA and far northeastern NE), these areas are susceptible to the highest snow accumulations that will likely exceed several inches. Most guidance at this time is most keen on northwestern IA into far northeastern NE to potentially observe more than 8″ of snow, though it’s something to watch heading into the day Tuesday.
Simulation of temperatures through Wednesday: While likely overdone, cold will definitely settle into NE and IA tonight where there was greater emphasis on snows over the past weekend. Many locations in the northern portions of these states will dip into the negatives with single digits being more common across the remainder of NE/IA by Tuesday morning. Low temperatures in the teens and 20s are more likely into KS and MO. As we work in the precipitation from our next system, central and southern MO will bear watching as warmer air aloft working in over temperatures at or just slightly below freezing Tuesday night will allow for areas of freezing rain. However, nearing the end of the period of precipitation, warmer air at the surface pushing in will allow temps to easily rise into the 40s and melt any of the frozen precipitation that had fallen prior to that time.
Simulated radar through 3pm CST Wednesday: Very light snow showers in western KS will likely slowly shift northward into tonight, but as previously stated will likely only lead to limited occasions of a dusting of snow. During the morning hours Tuesday, light snows will begin to develop across western KS/NE (especially after 6am CST) and slowly gain coverage through the morning. The main bulk of the wave which will bring a wide stretch of snowy conditions looks to come from the south and enter the southern portions of KS/MO mainly after 12pm CST Tuesday and lift northward through the afternoon, evening and overnight hours. This will mean snow will spread into the remainder of KS/MO, then eventually NE and IA Tuesday evening. Generally speaking, the snow will be on the light to moderate side, but watch for heavier banding at times, especially within the aforementioned areas that have enhanced frontogenesis. With that warmer air lifting in, the brief period of snow in southern/central MO will be replaced with freezing rain/drizzle before clearing with generally only light rain shower risks as temps rise into the 40s. Elsewhere should remain a snow event through this duration. By Wednesday morning, the snows will be pulling out of KS and MO but continue in the eastern two-thirds of NE into IA (though continuing to lift north). It won’t be until mid-afternoon Wednesday when the vast majority of these snows have lifted east and exited the region.
Here’s an updated snowfall analysis map from Tuesday into Wednesday: Most guidance has shifted the system ever-so-slightly further west, hence a trend in that direction since this morning’s update. Regardless, a broad swath of several inches of snow is likely, especially for the central and northeastern portions of the region. We are still eyeing a band of 3-6″ stretching through central KS into eastern NE and eastern IA while heavier amounts of 6-8″ is likely in far eastern NE into the western two-thirds of IA, including Des Moines and Omaha. Those frontogenesis signals cannot be ignored, so we maintain isolated 8″+ amounts in northeastern IA stretching towards the city of Omaha. Snows will be on the lighter side elsewhere with the far southeastern portions of MO expected to receive minimal snow and more light icing. Winds aren’t expected to be too terribly breezy (gusts generally under 25mph), but could lead to some reduced visibilities and patchy blowing snow given the dry, powdery nature of the snowflakes.
In all honesty MO is the trickiest part of this forecast as the central/southern portions of the state will initially observe a brief period of snow before transitioning to sleet then freezing rain (ending as rain showers). We still believe some minor freezing rain accumulation along with sleet is possible here Tuesday night before the transition to rain showers occurs by Wednesday morning (areas like Columbia, Jefferson City, Springfield and Poplar Bluff). Cities such as Kansas City and St. Joseph should remain all snow through this event. The model shown below is likely overdone on ice accretion, but has a good idea on the general area range of the freezing rain potential, which should remain around 0.05″ or less. Localized pockets approaching 0.1″ of ice can’t be fully ruled out.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!