Good morning everyone! Upper-level energy is continuing to provide lift, which is helping to persist areas of snow across the southern/western portions of SD, far southern MN, northeastern NE and especially into IA as of 8:40am CST. The heaviest of this activity resides within central IA and generally think this will stay the case at least through early afternoon. However, this ribbon of snow stretching across the aforementioned areas will linger through the day into tonight, becoming lighter as the night progresses.
Here’s the latest look at the weather bulletins in effect across the region: Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect until 6pm CST this evening across central/northwestern SD and a 9-county area west of Des Moines in IA. Otherwise, Winter Weather Advisories are more common from southern/eastern SD into far southern MN, northeastern NE and the remainder of IA. It should be noted that the vast majority of these hazards are only in effect through 6pm CST this evening, but the light snows will still linger even after this time, continuing the hazardous road conditions that can already be found across the region.
Simulation of temperatures through Tuesday morning: Another cold day is in store for the area as high temperatures range from the single digits in northern SD to the lower 20s in southeastern IA. Look for temperatures to dip into the negatives in northern SD and northern MN overnight with single digits and teens expected elsewhere. The wind won’t be that much of a factor through tonight and given the colder temperatures, will allow for a powdery, high-ratio snow to persist across the heart of the area. Again, winds won’t be too terribly breezy and may gust to 20-25mph at times, allowing for potentially low visibilities and patchy blowing snow.
Through the remainder of the day into tonight, the greatest threat for snow will reside within the circled region below (southern two-thirds of SD, far southern MN, northeastern NE and much of IA) as a ribbon of energy will be sprawled out across the area. This energy will promote the continuation of an axis of light snow that generally won’t be too terribly heavy at this point in time, but given the persistent, lighter nature of it, accumulations will slowly add up. This energy will fade and push ESE as tonight progresses with only light flurry activity anticipated in these areas come Monday morning.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: Given the ribbon of upper-level energy persisting across the areas mentioned above through the remainder of the day into tonight, light snows will remain likely, though will be gradually weakening and fading in coverage through the night with only light flurries remaining by the end of this loop (6am CST Monday).
Additional snowfall through tonight: A general 1-3″ of additional snow is anticipated ranging from northwestern SD through the southern portions of the state into northeastern NE, far southern MN and much of IA (though excluding far southwestern tip of the state where less than 1″ is likely). A few localized pockets approaching an additional 4″ of snow can’t be ruled out, but will be fewer and far between at this point. Definitely remember that the snow depicted below does not come within a short duration but through the next 18-21 hours as the snow will be lighter, but steady in nature. Northeastern SD, northern MN and western/southern NE likely sees no measurable snow and stays dry.
Light flurry chances will remain through the day Monday with even a weak pulse of snow gliding into southern/central NE during the afternoon and evening hours. However, accumulations will be minor and generally less than 0.5″. Beyond this wave we’re eyeing another snowmaker to impact the eastern two-thirds of NE/SD into much of IA/MN late Tuesday through Wednesday. The details will still need to be ironed out over the coming couple of days, but several inches of snow for many in the region should be anticipated, especially for the eastern areas. This is one of our targeted storm dates and bears watching.
Here’s a look at potential snowfall amounts coming in two 24 hour increments: The images on the left represent the European and GFS models Tuesday through Tuesday night while the images on the right represent Wednesday through Wednesday night. In general, a substantial hit for the area is becoming more likely, especially for eastern NE, southern MN and into IA. There still remains some discrepancies between these two models as the GFS has a more easterly solution. Right now we favor the European’s more westerly solution given recent trends as a storm approaches to push north and west. However, the amounts shown below are not our official forecast but something to ponder and definitely shows several inches of accumulating snow is likely for many.
Here’s a look at total precipitation over the next 7 days: The further south and east you head, the more likely for enhanced precipitation totals. More than 1″ of liquid is likely across much of IA over the next week with a general 0.5-1″ expected in NE, eastern SD and southern MN. Definitely note that much of the precipitation shown below comes with the mid-week storm system, so any fluctuations in track and intensity will have impacts on the precipitation totals. Regardless, it’s going to be an active weak, especially for southeastern areas.
High/low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Sioux Falls, Minneapolis, Des Moines and Grand Island:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!