Good morning everyone! Southwestern SD continues to be the main story this morning (as of 9:30am CST) as bursts of snow continue to slowly lift northeastward. As we progress through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours, snow coverage will increase across the western Dakotas due to this wave of energy working further into the region.
Here’s a look at the current weather bulletins that are in effect across the Northern Plains: Our attention has turned towards a more substantial snowmaker for the southern and western parts of the region, which have allowed the National Weather Service to issue Winter Storm Warnings for southwestern ND into northwestern/central SD. Winter Weather Advisories extend out about a country row north and south of these warnings, then extend southeastward through eastern SD into portions of southwestern MN. Expect the heavier snows to come tonight through the day Sunday.
Simulation of temperatures through Sunday night: Another cold day is in store for much of the region as highs in the single digits will be prevalent. Temperatures won’t fall too much overnight given the precipitation across a large sum of the area, but high temperatures Sunday mainly in the single digits will fall into the negatives for northwestern areas Sunday night into Monday morning. The wind won’t be that much of a factor during this time, but watch for wind chills to hover in the -10s in the Dakotas, dipping into the -20s at times. Given high temperatures largely remaining in the single digits this weekend, this will allow for a powdery, high-ratio snow. Again, winds won’t be too terribly breezy and may gust to 20-25mph at times, allowing for potentially low visibilities and patchy blowing snow.
As discussed in our previous updates over the last few days, our incoming disturbance will come with enhanced upper-level divergence (shown below) which will aid in precipitation breaking out across the western and eventually southern portions of the region today into tonight. When winds diverge away from each other in the upper-levels, this supports convergence in the low-levels and subsequently lifting motion in the atmosphere to replace the lost mass from the upper-levels. In summary, snows will break out as the day progresses, adding to the snow cover in the area.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: This wave of snow will have more upper-level support from the Jet Stream and favorable forcing for upward motion which will allow for this system to be more robust than some system’s past. Bursts of snow in western SD will lift northeastward and gain coverage through the afternoon hours across the western two-thirds of SD and western ND. Watch for the snows to gradually spread into the eastern third of SD this evening into tonight with southwestern MN finally observing snow by the midnight hour. Heavier bands of snow will be common through the remainder of the night across much of SD, the southern third of MN and southwestern ND. The axis of snow stretching through the aforementioned areas will slowly wane in coverage and intensity as Sunday progresses into Sunday night. The biggest risk to the forecast continues to be Sunday as the northern periphery of the snow hovers near the Minneapolis area in MN. Drier air will be pushing downward from the north which will result in a tight snow gradient in this area. Confidence remains low given the dry air north, but any slight shifts north in track will result in higher totals for central MN. By the end of this loop (6am CST Monday), snow coverage will have dwindled substantially but some residual weak energy aloft will keep light snow showers/flurry chances alive, especially in the Dakotas.
Northern Plains Snowfall Outlook through Sunday Night: Snow will be more consistent and heaviest in far southwestern ND into northwestern/central SD where some low-level frontogenesis will aid in a band of 9-12″+ of snow. There still remains some variation in guidance for southern ND as a sharp gradient will be setup in the area. However, definitely note that amounts could trend slightly higher than shown. The same can be said for central MN pending how much dry air can combat the snow come Sunday. Otherwise, a band of 6-9″ extends through southeastern SD into far southwestern MN while 3-6″ is likely just south of Bismarck/Minneapolis. Amounts do steadily drop off the further north you head due to dry air.
Monday will continue the light flurry chances for the region but we’ll need to watch Tuesday night into Wednesday for another potential snowmaker to impact the southeastern portions of the region. Exact timing and amounts will need to be fine-tuned over the coming days, but several inches of snow will be possible, especially the further south and east you’re located. Any trends north and west could result in greater snow impacts for the area.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The greatest emphasis for liquid amounts ranging between 0.25-0.75″ reside within southwestern ND, much of SD and southern MN. Most of this comes with the system through the weekend, and then the next wave for southeastern areas mid-next week. Areas further north will remain on the drier side.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days:
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!