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Good Friday morning! Southern portions of the state have picked up a soaking rain, with several spots seeing 1″ or more. As expected, there was a sharp cut-off in rain amounts across central Illinois.
As we go through the morning showers will continue to shift south exiting extreme southern Illinois by noon today. Central areas may see a couple quick snow showers, but that would be it. Otherwise, I do anticipate some sunshine to work in this afternoon as we dry out.
Temperatures will continue to cool behind the frontal passage this morning and hold steady this afternoon.
Saturday will bring a disorganized disturbance bring the threat for some light rain and snow showers. Forecast radar from 9am to 11pm shown below. The first wave will work into southern Illinois with light rain/snow, then a secondary piece of energy works in during the afternoon with snow showers over northern areas, mixing with rain south. Precipitation quickly exits by early evening.
Light snow accumulations generally less than 1″ possible over northern portions of the state.
Temperatures will be a factor in limiting impacts. Much of the state is above freezing Saturday afternoon, but you can see that northern parts of the state do stay closer to freezing, and may fall a touch below that as the light snow is moving through. That is why those areas have the best chance to pick up light snow accumulations.
As skies start to clear Saturday night, I could see some fog mainly in the southern portion of the state. With temperatures slightly below freezing, this could be freezing fog. Lower confidence on this.
Most of Sunday is a dry and warmer day as southwest winds allow temperatures to soar in the 40s and 50s.
Still targeting the threat for heavy rain next week. Copious amounts of Gulf moisture will surge northward into the state Monday into Wednesday with a very sharp frontal boundary draped across the state. As the front moves east, western locations may see some freezing potential late Tuesday into Wednesday as colder air works back in, and we’ll keep you updated on that. The bigger concern is the amount of rain forecast. Many spots could see 2-4″, with highest amounts in the south-central part of the state.
Still some differences in the data regarding the placement of heaviest rains. We note the GFS is still further south with the heaviest axis, but also suggest bands of 4-6″+ in southern parts of the state…certainly alarming.
