Good afternoon everyone! We’ll watch a cold front sweep through the region from a northwest to southeast trajectory this evening into the overnight hours, essentially putting an end to the brief warm spell over the southern portions of the region. Come Friday morning, temperatures across the vast majority of the region will be below freezing, with it progressively being colder the further north you’re located. Areas such as northeastern NE into IA (where there is some remaining snowpack) are expected to drop down into the single digits and possibly below zero in far northern IA. Daytime recovery will be minimal Friday as most places stay well below freezing. On another note, vastly the entire region will stay dry through the evening, but a few scattered snow showers may clip the far northern portions of IA before exiting to the northeast by 9pm CST. A very light dusting of snow is possible.
With the accumulating snows expected to impact a large portion of the region starting tonight in the western areas and progressing southeastward through the day Friday, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued in advance for the southern/eastern halves of KS, central/southeastern NE and western MO. Accumulating snows of at least a couple of inches in these areas will lead to snow covered roads and numerous slick spots, though the snow initially may have a difficult time accumulating in southern KS/MO due to the warmth today. However, this will be overcame as the event wears on. Wind Chill Advisories are also in effect in northwestern IA due to the bitterly cold temperatures tonight into Friday morning.
Simulated radar from through 3am CST Saturday: The next disturbance pushes snow coverage into the NE Panhandle by the 12am CST hour tonight and spreads eastward into central NE and northern KS through the remainder of the night into the morning hours Friday. Warmer air aloft will help to promote the development of sleet and even freezing rain at times in the southern portions of KS Friday morning as well. Watch for this band of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times to work into MO by 8am CST Friday and progressively bring more snow coverage to the state as the day wears on. However, that warmer air aloft will keep precipitation mainly in the form of sleet and freezing rain in the southern third of the state. Also watch for the southwestern portions of IA to get clipped by these snows mainly during the late morning into the afternoon hours Friday. This system will be a rather quick mover, so anticipate the bulk of the wintry precipitation to exit NE and KS around 8pm CST Friday, then MO by the 1-2am CST Saturday hour.
Snowfall forecast through Friday night reveals a swath of 3-6″ (locally higher) stretching from north-central NE through southeastern NE/northeastern KS into central MO. These areas are likely to receive the heaviest snow accumulations, putting cities such as Grand Island, Kansas City and Columbia in the bullseye for several inches of snow. As previously stated, roads will be snow covered and hazardous, so beware of conditions if traveling during this time. Given the corridor of snows stretches through the heart of the region, expect amounts to drop off sharply in southwestern IA, southern KS and southern MO. Mixing concerns with sleet and freezing rain are the culprits for the lighter amounts in southern KS/MO. There is an area of lower confidence in central KS as some data has backed off on snowfall amounts while others remain more aggressive. This is the area to watch for potentially higher amounts as well, but is not a certainty.
Speaking of freezing rain…here’s a look at model simulated freezing rain accumulation through Friday night: The southern third of MO in particular is at risk for 0.1-0.25″ of ice accretion from this system as it impacts the area. Cities such as Springfield, Joplin and Poplar Bluff will need to be weary of the risk as the ice will have some detrimental impacts to travel. Freezing rain risks also stretch into southern KS where a light glaze of ice will also be possible.
Another storm system will follow on its heels Saturday afternoon through Sunday bringing the risk for accumulating snows, generally across northern/eastern NE and much of IA. The details will need to be ironed out over the next couple of days, but watch for the snows to slowly lift northward Sunday across NE and IA while gradually weakening with time late Sunday into Sunday night. Further south, temperatures will be warmer, but still allow for a likely mix of rain and snow showers for KS and MO. Accumulations in these parts should stay on the lighter side.
Here’s a model output for snowfall from the GFS for the Saturday afternoon through Sunday system: Please note that this is a model run and not our official forecast. As previously stated, the northern/eastern portions of NE into much of IA stand the better chances for accumulating snows, with the potential for at least a few inches of snow. The European Model (not shown) is more bullish on amounts and further north, which is something to keep in mind going forward and is a possibility.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!