Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out today’s hazardous weather blog, brought to you by Mr. Quik Home Services out of Indianapolis! You can rely on Mr. Quik’s team of professionals for all your heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical needs in your home! With winter expected to keep on keeping on, now would be a great time to get that furnace tuned up! You can have peace of mind your furnace keeps going by checking out Mr. Quik’s $89 heating tune-up special! This will reduce expensive repairs with your heating system and increase its efficiency! Read more about it at mrquikhomeservices.com. Be sure to “LIKE” Mr. Quik on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MisterQuik/.
This blog will give an early look at the spring severe weather season. We got by very easy last year in the U.S. with officially no major tornadoes touching down on U.S. soil! The tornado count for 2018 (red line) was much below the average (grey line). In particular, look how below normal the tornado count was from June to August compared to “normal” for that point in the year.
A good reason behind this is due to our rapid transition from an unseasonably cold, northwest flow over tornado alley in March and April last year followed by a rapid switch to summer as the jet stream shifted too far north into Canada, not allowing for strong storm set-ups. Last year was quite an exception from how things normally go! Could we be in for a different story this spring? It’s still too early to say for sure, but it’s easy to say it will be more active than last spring. One thing we can do is look at storm season years featuring a weak to moderate El Nino, and how those springs fared (since 2000). I come up with 2003, 2004, 2005, & 2010. 2015 & 16 were El Nino’s as well, but much stronger and unlikely to be good ENSO matches this spring. Let’s take a closer look at these years.
2003 was a MUCH above normal severe season. While it started off fairly quiet in March, the severe weather season took a MAJOR turn in April and May. May was exceptionally active with a record number of tornadoes that year. There were 751 tornadoes that spring, compared to the 511 average. 542 of those occurred in May! May only averages 276. Quite remarkable. Here is a look at storm reports in March-May of 2003:
2004 was a MUCH above normal severe season. Similar to 2003, 2004 featured an incredible number of tornadoes across the U.S. May featured 508 tornadoes, with 685 in total that spring.
2005 was a QUIET severe weather season, with only 318 U.S. tornadoes during the spring.
2010 was quiet during the spring season, but note that June was an incredibly active month of severe weather.
I will note the subtropical jet has been VERY active the past several weeks, hence why so many areas are dealing with flooding and excessive moisture. There are signs this can continue into the spring. That can certainly allow for the needed temperature gradient and moisture for severe weather episodes to become more frequent. Based on our forecast heading through spring, we see a greater risk for severe weather from the Ohio Valley to Mississippi Valley and Deep South, while the north could be less active compared to normal.
There has been exciting research behind what atmospheric drivers and their phases can correlate to an increase in severe weather incidence. For example, there is research showing that 4 weeks after being in MJO phase 6, combined with a +QBO (westerly QBO), we tend to find less favorable conditions for severe weather for many areas. However it can correlate to favorable conditions for severe weather in Mississippi and Alabama. Our MJO was in phase 6 from January 25th to roughly February 8th. Adding 4 weeks would take us in late February and early March. The blues represent less favorable conditions for severe weather, while the oranges/red are more favorable. The third composite below is what we are looking at for late month into early March.
I will note the subtropical jet stream has been VERY active the past several weeks, hence why so many areas are dealing with flooding and excessive moisture. There are signs this can continue into the spring. That can certainly allow for the needed temperature gradient and moisture for severe weather events. Will be fun to see how the spring pans out. As a reminder, severe weather can happen anytime of the year and it’s always wise to prepare your family and have a plan of action!! As a reminder, here are the average number of tornadoes by state per year. The most active tornado months come from April to June, typically when the ingredients for strong storms and tornadoes are more frequent (strong jet streams with moisture/uplift/instability). The reason why Fall severe weather season isn’t as intense is due to a weaker jet stream and less of a temperature gradient.
You can stay on top of spring storms by subscribing to our service!! We now offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather Subscription, which is updated during active weather. This will keep you aware of any impactful weather across the Midwest. Sign-up here: https://bamwx.com/register/midwest-extreme-wx-premium/
