Good afternoon everyone! Snows are slowly but surely expanding across the northern portions of ND as of 4:20pm CST while scattered snow showers/flurries are more common across the eastern Dakotas. As we continue into the evening and overnight hours, the expansion of more widespread light snows are anticipated into the eastern Dakotas as well as MN. Those in far southwestern ND into western SD likely won’t observe much in the way of measurable snow over the next 36 hours.
While many will observe measurable snow through Tuesday (excluding the aforementioned areas), we are particularly interested in the eastern/southeastern portions of MN where greater frontogenesis and overall better forcing will be located. These areas also will be situated closest to the low pressure system which will be progressing northeastward across the Eastern Plains into the Great Lakes region. The areas within the encircled region will likely observe snow accumulations on the order of 6″+ with the far southeastern corner of the state receiving up to a foot of snow. More on this later!
Here’s a look at the winter weather bulletins in effect across parts of the region: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for north-central ND and also southern/eastern MN. Expected heavier snow accumulations in far southeastern MN have lead to the National Weather Service to issue Winter Storm Warnings, including the Rochester area.
Overall, temperatures won’t be a huge deal throughout the duration of this system, but still will stay well below freezing and allowing a continued high-ratio, fluffy snow event. Shown below are low temperatures into Tuesday morning when snow will still be falling in MN. Colder air will be working in behind this system which will allow for western ND and northwestern SD to once again fall back into the negatives.
Simulated radar through 12am CST Wednesday: Light snow coverage will expand eastward into the eastern Dakotas through the evening hours while a deformation band from IA will progress northward into southern MN. Heading into the remainder of the night, Light snows will push eastward through the eastern Dakotas while snow coverage continues to expand across the state of MN. Heavier banding will be noted late tonight into Tuesday morning in southern and especially southeastern MN. We’ll work out the precipitation from SD around 6am CST Tuesday and around the lunch hour in far eastern ND. However, expect to continue periods of snow in MN Tuesday morning with the activity pushing into the northern and eastern portions of the state by afternoon, slowly waning into the evening hours. Most of the snow event will be done and over with by the end of this loop, but some pesky flurries/light snow showers may remain in MN even after this time.
Winds will be on the increase through the daytime hours Tuesday which will likely result in lower visibilities in the eastern Dakotas but more in particular MN given the lingering snows in the area. Wind gusts upwards of 30-35mph will be common, which promotes blowing/drifting snow. Expect a downward trend with wind intensity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Total additional snow through Tuesday evening: The highest risk area remains in eastern MN due to the threat of a deformation band of snow (aided by low-level frontogenesis and proximity to the low pressure system) setting up over the area. Recent guidance has trended upward with snowfall totals in this area, hence a slight increase in our latest forecast. 4-6″ of snow is expected within the Minneapolis and Duluth areas, but watch for another region within northeastern ND to observe similar totals. Locations just east of Rochester, MN will likely observe 9-12″ of snow with the greatest amounts situated within the state of WI. Expected snow covered and slick roads through the period that will result in difficult travel conditions. The further south and west to you, the lower the totals as many in SD will observe only minimal snow accumulations (some little to none).
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!