Good afternoon everyone! The wave of precipitation continues to work northeastward as of 3:15pm CST with the bulk of MO experiencing moderate to perhaps heavy rain at times. Colder air to the north is allowing for more wintry precipitation to fall with a corridor of freezing rain extending from St. Joseph, MO to just north of Quincy, IL. North of this region into far eastern NE and southern IA are observing the precipitation to fall as snow, which will continue to be the case as these snows expand into additional portions of IA through the remainder of the afternoon and this evening.
Here’s a look at the current weather alerts in effect across the region: Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the eastern two-thirds of NE, far northern KS, the northern third of MO and western IA while Winter Storm Warnings remain hoisted for central and eastern IA. Further south into southeastern MO, Flood Watches with even some Flood Warnings are in effect for the heavier rains working over already saturated ground. Additional rains are to be anticipated through at least Tuesday morning, which will only enhance the flooding risks in these areas.
First simulated radar through 6am CST Tuesday then second simulated radar from 6am CST Tuesday through 12am CST Wednesday: Snow will continue to lift northeastward into the remainder of IA over the next several hours with a stronger emphasis on heavier snow banding showing up for the eastern portions of the state. Winds will likely gust to 20-25mph at times in these areas, so reduced visibilities along with patchy blowing snow will be possible, especially in the heavier bands. A corridor of freezing rain within the far northern portions of MO and far southeastern IA will linger as temperatures remain around freezing through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. To the south as previously specified, temperatures will stay too warm for any frozen precipitation, and these locations will continue to observe rain even into tonight. The central portions of NE are depicted to be observing scattered snow showers right now, but given the lack of saturation within the DGZ, this is likely falling as a light freezing mist and drizzle, resulting in slick spots and hence the Winter Weather Advisories. As this precipitation works eastward this evening, the freezing mist/drizzle should changeover to snow before exiting NE to the east by 3am CST tonight. A light drizzle in central/eastern KS persists this evening with some changeover to light snow showers/flurries possible tonight before also exiting east by 3am CST tonight. Snow intensity in IA will start to wane heading through the daytime hours Tuesday as the low pressure system works east, allowing the deformation band of snow to push west to east across the state through the morning hours Tuesday. Rain showers over most of MO late tonight will be changing over to quick bursts of snow Tuesday morning as the cold front brings in progressively colder air. These bursts of snow could be heavy at times and lead to minor snow accumulations before the bulk of this activity exits into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon. We’ll watch for some lingering backside snow showers in northeastern/northern IA through the afternoon and evening hours, with most of this activity either fading or pushing off to the east by the end of this loop (12am CST Wednesday). Winds will increase again during this time which would result in lower visibilities at times along with blowing snow.
Total additional snowfall through the day Tuesday reveals a band of 4-6″ of snow extending from Mason City southward into Des Moines and south-central IA and points east. Heavier totals pick up into eastern IA where a likely 6-9″ of snow is looking probable. A range of snowfall between 1″ to as much as 4″ is likely in far northern MO but totals quickly drop off further south due to freezing rain and regular rain being the more dominant precipitation types. However, some backside snow showers are expected to lead to scattered accumulations generally less than 1″ during the day morning hours Tuesday across the remainder of MO, though some guidance has drastically backed off this idea. An area of low confidence also resides within far southeastern IA where snow guidance suggests heavier totals, but will greatly depend on the placement of the rain/snow line into tonight.
Here’s a look at additional freezing rain potential into Tuesday morning: Most of the freezing rain accumulation will come through the midnight time period as the transition line between rain and snow becomes more distinct across the northern third of MO. However, additional ice accretion ~0.05-0.1″ will be possible while a very light glaze of ice still remains likely into northeastern KS and central/eastern NE (though it is not very well depicted here).
Total precipitation through Tuesday: The bulk of the precipitation at this point in time will reside within the eastern half of the region, particularly IA and MO where a general 0.25-0.5″ of additional liquid is expect. Higher amounts approaching 0.75″ will be common in eastern IA given the heavier banding expected in the area and then the Boot-heel due to more persistent heavy rain. Precipitation will remain very light in the eastern halves of NE/KS.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!