Good morning everyone! A wave of light snow showers are clipping the far northeastern portions of ND and far northern MN as of 12:05pm CST. The bulk of this precipitation is expected to remain north of the border into Canada. However, light snow showers will likely continue to clip areas along the MN/Ontario border this afternoon and evening.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday: The wave of snow mostly in southeastern Manitoba into southwestern Ontario will continue to work ESE through the afternoon and evening hours and clip the far northern portions of MN. This is a quick-moving wave and should exit east of the Arrowhead of MN around 9pm CST this evening. There will be some lingering, pesky upper-level energy to deal with into tonight that could continue the risks in far northern ND/MN for light snow flurries/showers, but once again the greatest forcing will remain north of the US/Canadian border.
Taking a look at snowfall amounts through tonight reveals the vast majority of the area not receiving any measurable snow. However, the light snows clipping the far northern portions of MN could bring a very light dusting of snow with amounts picking up north of the International border into southern Ontario/Manitoba. The vast majority of the models agree with the solution below, but the RDPS is more aggressive and brings an inch of snow towards International Falls. This is likely overdone and too far south, but something to point out regardless given the risks.
As we work into tonight and Saturday, areas of dense freezing fog are expected to develop within the circled region below, including most of ND, northern/eastern SD and southern/western MN. This is a result of increasing low-level saturation and with snowpack on the ground providing temperatures well below freezing in these areas, expect some slick spots. The freezing fog risk will let up some during the afternoon hours Saturday. However, increasing moisture (relative humidities shown in the second image below) out ahead of the next storm system will promote freezing drizzle risks especially in eastern SD into the southern two-thirds of MN that likely persists Saturday night and even into Sunday morning. If traveling definitely be cautious as freezing drizzle/fog risks will be enhanced this weekend, resulting in slick spots on many roadways.
Here’s a look at the fog potential Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area, with an emphasis on eastern SD into southern MN where freezing drizzle will already be a problem from increasing low-level saturation:
All this low-level moisture lifting into the region (enhancing the freezing fog/drizzle risks across the region this weekend) is due to the emergence of our next storm system which will lift out of the Rockies into the western Dakotas starting Sunday morning. Convection will spread eastward through the day Sunday and push into areas further east across the eastern Dakotas into MN Sunday afternoon/evening. Accumulating snows are to be expected with this system, especially in ND and northern MN where colder air will hang on while a mixed bag of precipitation is likely further south.
Simulated radar from 3am CST Sunday through 6pm CST Monday: Areas of drizzle continue/develop ahead our the next storm system that pushes into the western portions of the area Sunday morning but especially during the afternoon hours. Accumulating snows will be prevalent in ND and northern MN come Sunday night with a mixed bag of rain/sleet/freezing rain is more likely across eastern SD into southern MN. As the system works eastward, colder air will funnel back in behind and promote a changeover to snow showers in SD Sunday night and eventually southern MN Monday morning. It’ll take some time for this system to lift out, continuing backside snow showers in northern MN even into Monday evening. Also, breezy wind conditions will accompany this system as it pushes across the region, so lower visibilities along with blowing/drifting snow will be common. Travel conditions will continue to be quite difficult Sunday through Monday given the snows north and mixed precipitation south.
A first look at potential snow accumulation Sunday through Monday: A snowfall map will be created with tomorrow’s update as model guidance should continue to come into better agreement by then. Regardless, the best potential for 6″+ of snow when all is set and done will be located in ND and northern MN while totals fall off south of these regions due to more mixing. A couple inches of snow will be possible in SD and southern MN with any backside snow development during the later stages of the event.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Quite a temperature gradient across the region today with daytime highs approaching near 60ºF in portions of western ND while temperatures in the teens will be more prevalent in far eastern ND into MN. We’ll still note this temperature gradient tomorrow with the far southern portions of SD near 60ºF while directly north will observe a steep drop-off in temperatures. Behind the storm system late Sunday into Monday, expect a re-emergence in colder temperatures once more with negatives for highs in ND come Monday and overnight lows dipping to -20ºF Monday night.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Overall just looking at a few breezes from here and there over the next couple of days. However with our next storm system working in late Sunday through Monday, expect an uptick in wind gusts of 30-35mph.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!