Good morning everyone! The storm system that we have been tracking over the last several days is finally making its appearance in the far southern portions of MO (mainly in the Bootheel) as of 6:20am CST. Snow coverage in general will not expand much farther north than its current position due to high pressure to the north bearing down on the system, helping to suppress it. This will allow virtually all areas of the Central Plains to remain dry today, excluding the far southern MO.
Here’s a look at the advisories in place across the area this morning. Winter Weather Advisories, which run through 7am EST Sunday, are in effect for the southern-most row of counties in MO and the Bootheel. Elsewhere, quiet weather will take hold through the weekend but we are noting some areas of patchy dense fog in portions of NE and northwestern IA, which have yielded Dense Fog Advisories effective through 11am EST this morning.
Not much in the way of trends can be noted with this morning’s data compared to yesterday’s data regarding the storm system impacting the far southern portions of MO. The vast majority of the Central Plains will stay dry through the duration of the event as high pressure wins out and suppresses most of the precipitation. However, the northern periphery of the precipitation will continue to affect the southern-most row of counties in MO into the Bootheel progressing through tonight. Shown below is a simulated radar which runs through 6am CST Sunday. Snow coverage will continue to expand this morning into the afternoon hours for the Bootheel and the southern-most row of counties in MO. Various model guidance still continues to offer slight nuances to the precipitation forecast, but general consensus is to keep the precipitation as mostly snow through the daytime hours with some freezing rain mixing in at times in the Bootheel this afternoon and evening. High pressure suppression will keep this system from going further north and will start to push back south late evening into the overnight hours. By 12am CST tonight, a slight increase in temperatures in the mid-levels will allow any snows in the Bootheel to transition to freezing rain while snows gradually start to come to an end in the southern-most row of counties in MO. As this system works eastward, so will the precipitation with virtually all areas in far southern MO clearing the precipitation by 6am CST Sunday.
Sky cover forecast for Saturday: Mid-upper level clouds will remain draped across the southeastern portions of the Central Plains with snows likely in far southern MO. Areas of clouds will also hang around across sections of IA. Many locations in the northwestern half of KS into NE will observe a beautiful day with plentiful sunshine expected due to a lack of substantial energy.
Late tonight into Sunday morning, areas of patchy fog will develop again, mainly in southwestern NE that could pose some problems if traveling. There could also be a few patches of fog in far eastern IA, but more likely in low-lying locations. Any areas of fog present in the region Sunday morning will gradually erode through the morning hours.
Here’s an updated snowfall potential map through early Sunday: Overall, most of MO will stay clear of the snows but the southern-most row of counties are expected to receive a general 1″ or less before the storm clears the region. The highest totals at this time still appear to remain in northern AR into the Bootheel where 2-4″ of snow will be possible before all is set and done. At this point, fluctuations in track will be minimal but even the slightest shift can still have ramifications on snow totals. Another detrimental factor to snowfall will be the mixing in of freezing rain which could lower totals if it transitions sooner than expected. However, a light glaze of ice will be possible, mainly in the Bootheel. Slick spots will be likely with these snows and freezing rain along with falling surface temperatures so definitely be weary if traveling.
Heading into Sunday, the storm system will clear the region but we’ll watch an upper-level low dig into the region from the Northern Plains. Not much is expected with this disturbance due to the vast amounts of dry air that will be situated in the area. However, we can’t rule out a few flurries/very light snow showers Sunday evening through Monday morning. Most will observe nothing but partially clear skies.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The northwestern half of the region will largely remain mostly dry through this timespan, but a weak disturbance Wednesday will bring a round of scattered light rain showers to MO and southeastern IA followed by a more impactful storm system Thursday into early next weekend. Some back-side snows are possible with the Thursday through early next weekend system but this will need to be monitored as cold air supply will be questionable.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs will remain on the chilly side today, especially in areas under snowpack (NE/IA) where 20s to low 30s are expected. Further south, increased cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly warmer in the 30s. Some milder temperatures will work in Sunday across KS with 40s likely for highs. This will be especially true Tuesday when upper 40s to low 50s can be expected not only in KS but also MO.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Even with high pressure overhead, temperatures will fall well into the 20s for most Sunday morning with the exception being southern MO where increased cloud cover will hang around. As the storm system to the south of the region works east, colder temperatures will work in from the Northern Plains and allow temperatures to fall even further Monday morning where widespread low to mid teens are likely in NE/IA. A few localized pockets of single digit temperatures will be possible where decent snowpack remains.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Generally speaking…winds will remain relatively light due to high pressure settled in with gusts at most approaching 20mph.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Slightly warmer temperatures will work into the area mid-next week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!