Good afternoon, and thanks for checking out this edition of the Hazardous Weather Blog! Going to keep the theme of winter talk with a look at our cold/snowy start to winter for many in the lower 48, and if that can mean anything for the upcoming winter. Oh yeah, we’ll also look at the upcoming winter storm which could bury portions of the Appalachians in snow, especially North Carolina. Wanted to show you all the season to date snowfall compared to the past 4 years. It has been a fast start that began in mid-October. Many areas of the country have already seen some sort of snowfall. Exceptions being Georgia and Florida! That’s a big difference from the previous 3 years up to this point!
Snow cover in November across Northern America was the highest since 1966, and the 3rd highest November snow cover for the Northern Hemisphere. Does this give any hints for the rest of the winter?? Here is a look at what the top 12 snow cover years with a positive ENSO (El Nino) featured for the winter temperatures. Certainly paints a picture that’s not far from our winter forecast.
For fun, here is a look at snowfall in those years during December-February in select cities across the Ohio Valley. Generally averaged slightly snowier than normal. This doesn’t necessarily mean anything for this winter, but just interesting to look at. Not that bad! There’s always room for additional snows in March too.
The past several weeks have been very cold compared to normal. Here’s the map to prove it. For the October-November period, this is among the top 5 coldest since 1893 in many areas of the central U.S. For southwest Iowa, this is the coldest for that period on record!
Let’s briefly take a look at the winter storm expected to cross from the southern Plains to the southeast part of the country. Data has come into better agreement regarding placement, but there will be precipitation type issues as well which will make snowfall forecasts extremely tough. Highest confidence, BY FAR is as the storm moves across the Appalachians into North Carolina where historic amounts of snow are possible. Here is the latest snowfall from the GFS ensemble. Notice how it picks up on the higher elevation areas of northern Arkansas seeing enhanced snow risks. I think there can also be heavy snow in the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, which the model may be underplaying. The area that stands out is across North Carolina, Virginia, and far southeast Kentucky.
That map above is an average of 20 different members of the computer model. Here is a look at the individual ensemble forecasts. Notice they are all quite close, which means we are finally seeing a tighter clustering in the forecast.
Enjoy your snow, North Carolina. 🙂 Other-wise, areas farther north where you would expect snow this time of year will be quite dry through the middle of next week. Then, signals for another storm system as the cold eases its grip. A solid signal for a storm system in the central/eastern U.S ~Dec 14-15th. With a big blocking ridge of high pressure over the high latitudes there won’t be a ton of cold air supply, but enough that can support wintry risks. With this solution shown here on the soon to be new GFS, you get a touch colder and you can have a decent winter storm hit. European isn’t that far off.
Again, the true arctic air will be shut off, but the GEFS ensembles shown below have a strong signal for a trough to work across the U.S. late next week.
You can stay updated on upcoming storm dates and have a daily local forecast by signing up for our service! Our weather service can provide you with long-range targeted storm/front dates, and our long-range forecasts based on research first, and models second! You can inquire for our forecasting services by going to bamwx.com/contact-us or e-mail [email protected]! We would love to help you out this next year with an accurate service and on-call support!
For those trading natural gas and watching U.S. heating demand, we a service just for you! We provide Euro/GFS HDD/CDDs, early AM energy check-ups, mid-morning video/notes with our takeaways and a 24/7 on-call service! Inquire today for info/samples!
