Today’s Video:
Wanted to start off with a bit of forecast verification from the weekend storm. Overall not a bad, but definitely difficult forecast to pinpoint given the gradients that set up. Southern MN was top notch but southwestern SD came in under forecast. A calmer pattern is settling in behind this system, but we still will be tracking a few weak disturbances tracking through the region that will put down very light snow accumulations.
High pressure through most of the day will provide for drier weather with the exception being MN where some light flurries will be possible. The first disturbance to watch comes this evening with a weak piece of energy lifting into western SD. This energy will likely spark some scattered snow showers this evening that will persist into the nighttime hours before gradually dissipating as it works eastward Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Far southwestern ND may also get clipped with these light snows this evening into tonight.
Another piece of energy that will be slightly stronger will lift into northern ND starting mainly during the afternoon hours Tuesday. This disturbance will drop southeastward and impact the northern portions of MN late afternoon into the evening hours. This snow shower threat will linger through Tuesday night before gradually weakening/lifting east Wednesday morning. Far northeastern SD into southern MN may also get clipped by these snow showers, but the main forcing will be in northern MN.
Here’s a simulated radar of the disturbance working through ND into northern MN from 11am CST Tuesday through 5am CST Wednesday: Quick bursts of snow will be possible with a dusting to half an inch of snow in northern MN with more scattered activity elsewhere.
Total snowfall through 6am CST Wednesday: We are generally looking at 0.5″ of less for the area, with the better chances for light accumulations in particular in MN. Isolated pockets of ~1″ will be possible in the northern half of the state with the disturbance working through late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Simulated radar from 3am CST Wednesday through 12am CST Thursday: Another disturbance will follow behind Tuesday/Tuesday night’s weak system and track through northern ND into northern MN that will bring light snow accumulations on the order of 1-2″ for portions of northeastern ND into northwestern MN before all is set and done.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through the next 7 days: Higher pressure will stay in the area through much of this timeframe, leading to little precipitation (trace to 0.1″). This model is picking out the precipitation with the system Wednesday in eastern ND.
High/low temperatures over the next four days: Highs will generally remain below freezing across the area with the exception being western SD Tuesday when temperatures could rise slightly above freezing. Temperatures will take a dive Wednesday night into Thursday with virtually the entire region observing highs in the lower 20s or lower. Some in northeastern ND into northern MN will likely fail to rise above the single digits. Thursday morning lows will be quite chilly with many in eastern ND into northern MN dropping into the single digits with some negative readings possible.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 15 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls: Please note that this is an ensemble mean and smoothes the numbers.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!