Good evening everyone! It was a very chilly day for most of the area with some locations not making it out of the negatives even for highs. With that fresh heavy snowpack on the ground in the eastern Dakotas into northern/western MN, temperatures will once again take a nose-dive as many will be waking up well into the negatives come Saturday morning. Shown below is forecasted Saturday morning lows from the European Model which reveals most of the aforementioned areas falling into the -10s with a few pockets dropping even further towards -20ºF and lower. Wind chills will drop below -30ºF in some of these spots. As a result of these bitterly cold temperatures, Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for tonight into Saturday morning across the eastern Dakotas and western MN.
We’re not looking at much in the way of precipitation over the next 24 hours or so, which is nice for those still trying to dig out from the snowstorm. However, there will be some scattered pieces of weak energy dropping into the circled region below which could spark a few snow showers during the afternoon hours but nothing to be overly concerned about and would only amount to a light dusting at best.
Our attention will more shift towards the energy that works into the northern portions of the area late Saturday as areas of light snow will be clipping the northern portions of ND and northern MN while a greater focus of energy will bring light snows Saturday night to additional areas of ND and eventually northwestern MN. Into the day Sunday, note scattered snow shower chances remaining in northern ND into northern MN while a bigger system will be right on its heels beginning to enter the western Dakotas.
Snowfall should remain generally on the lighter side given the weak nature of the energy. However, the best chances for light snow accumulations will come across northern ND and northern MN where 0.5-1″ of snow will be common. Localized pockets of near 1.5″ can’t be ruled out at this time and is more likely along the Canadian border. As previously stated from this morning, this model may be underdone in southwestern SD as we believe a light dusting of snowfall will be possible.
A more substantial system will work into the Dakotas Sunday night and especially Monday which could drop a band of accumulating snow in the eastern Dakotas with snows lifting into central MN late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The precipitation initially in eastern SD may start out as a mix before a gradual transition to snow is anticipated by Monday morning. There is still plenty of inconsistency between various models regarding this storm system, but accumulating snows will be possible in these areas. The snows will gradually weaken heading into Monday night with most snow coverage exiting the eastern Dakotas by New Years Day and southern MN by the afternoon.
Given the stronger nature of this incoming storm system Sunday night through Monday, lower visibilities will be common as winds could gust up to 30-35mph while the snow falls. Areas of blowing and drifting snow may be a problem with this storm and travel will likely become difficult.
The European Model has trended slightly more aggressive with this system, still dumping a good 3-6″ of snow across portions of the eastern Dakotas into central MN. Localized 6″+ will be possible with the model highlighting southeastern ND and northeastern SD as having the best chance for these amounts. Lighter snow accumulations are expected elsewhere outside of the aforementioned areas. Due to discrepancies on data, this is a system that bears watching and will need to be watched into Monday.
Temperatures will drop quite dramatically again behind the storm system Monday with Tuesday morning lows well into the negatives for most. This is thanks to an arctic airmass which will funnel into the region. Daytime recovery won’t be very substantial as most in the eastern Dakotas and western MN will fail to climb above 0ºF. Some locations will likely not even make it out of the negative teens. Regardless, wind chills Tuesday will be bitterly cold and additional Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed. Maximum temperatures from the European model for Tuesday shown below:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!