Good morning everyone! The potent storm system that tracked into the region last night is bringing areas of rain to portions of eastern NE, eastern KS and northwestern MO while a wintry mix of precipitation is being observed further north in far northeastern NE and northwestern IA (as of 9:30am CST). As we progress through the remainder of the day into tonight, we’ll continue to find rains overspread much of the region, though lighter scattered coverage is more likely in MO. On the northwestern periphery of the precipitation shield, heavy wintry precipitation will be likely.
Here’s a look at the areas currently under weather bulletins: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of central NE and northwestern KS with Winter Weather Advisories in effect for most of the NE Panhandle and a couple counties east of the warned areas. Heavy snow accumulations are to be expected in the Winter Storm warned areas as snows develop and persist tonight through Thursday as well.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Thursday: Periods of moderate to perhaps heavy rain at times will continue to overspread most of the region today, excluding northwestern NE where snow is more likely and the southern two-thirds of MO where rain will be more scattered and light in coverage. Snow may mix in at times in northern IA. Heading into tonight, colder air will work into the western areas where precipitation will likely changeover to heavy snow in central NE and western KS while periods of rain continue further east with some rain coverage starting to dwindle in eastern KS and western MO. Thursday morning will feature snows in central NE and the western half of KS while lighter showers are expected in eastern KS into MO and IA.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Thursday through 12pm CST Friday: Snows lose intensity and exit to the northeast out of KS late Thursday afternoon into the evening while light snows persist in NE, especially the northern areas. Along the cold front, there will be the potential for enough instability for a broken line of showers and perhaps some storms to develop in MO and IA Thursday afternoon. While severe weather is not anticipated at this time, some of these storms may be strong with gusty winds and small hail due to sufficient wind energy. During the nighttime hours, this broken line of precipitation will slowly weaken and exit east out of MO and IA while light snows start to lift east into IA as well. We’ll slowly lift these light snows out of NE Friday evening and IA by midnight Friday night. Much of the region will be dry into Saturday, but a weak system may bring scattered light snow showers to portions of KS.
As the storm system continues to track into the region through Thursday and strengthen, winds will be on the rise. Shown below is a loop of wind gusts through Saturday morning. Wind gusts upwards of 40mph at times will be likely in the warm sector of the storm (IA, MO and eastern KS) but also into NE and western KS where snows will be heavy at times. The aforementioned areas that receive snow will likely observe blowing and drifting given the stout wind gusts which could result in near-blizzard conditions.
Total precipitation through Friday morning: Widespread heavy precipitation totals of 1-2″ are expected in KS, the eastern two-thirds of NE, northwestern MO and into IA. Localized pockets of 2-3″ will be possible in the heaviest rain bands that fall, especially in KS. To the east in central MO, rains will be more scattered and light in nature for most of the event, resulting in a corridor in these areas receiving 0.25-0.75″ of rain. A slight uptick in totals are expected again into southeastern MO. The least amount of precipitation will fall in the NE Panhandle.
Here’s a look at total snowfall through Friday: While the brunt of this winter storm likely will impact the Northern Plains, we are expecting 6-12″ snow accumulations in portions of western KS through central NE with amounts falling off west and east of this corridor. Localized pockets of 12″+ of snow will be possible. Most of the eastern areas will be in the warm sector of this system, which will lead to a majority rain event. However, some of the wrap-around snows Friday could lead to light snow accumulations in northern IA. As previously stated, winds will substantially pick up into Thursday which will lead to blowing and drifting snow along with low visibilities, especially in NE. Blizzard-like conditions will be possible in these areas and travel will be very treacherous.
After the storm system passes the region to the east Friday night, our weather will quiet down for the weekend with the only chance for precipitation coming with the weak wave in KS Saturday. However, as we end the weekend Sunday night into Monday, a weak piece of energy from the northwest will lift into northwestern areas that quickly pushes southeast across the region with scattered light snow showers. Locations across MO, especially southeastern areas, can work in a disturbance from the south Monday that would bring rain. By Tuesday evening, virtually the entire region will be dry once more.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Most of the precipitation shown below comes from the current storm system through Friday with widespread 1-2″+ expected in the previously mentioned areas while even that corridor of lighter precipitation shows up in central MO. As is the case with the short-term, the NE Panhandle will remain the area with the lightest precipitation amounts through this period.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!