Good morning everyone! The leftover energy that is starting to scoot out of the region to the east is hanging around scattered patches of light snow showers/flurries in portions of MN and even into ND. However, as we find the upper-level energy exit so will the chances for snow showers as we progress through the remainder of the day into tonight.
Simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: As discussed yesterday, today is the day we start to really notice a decline in snow shower/flurry coverage across ND and MN. The very light snow activity depicted by radar in ND will continue to slowly diminish through the remainder of the morning while northern MN comes later by 12am CST tonight. A few lingering snow showers will remain possible in southern MN today but won’t have the same coverage as northern MN. It will be noticeably drier further west late today.
Here’s a look at additional snowfall accumulations through this event: Additional accumulations will be on the lighter side through the remainder of the event with generally up to 0.5″ possible in the northern third of MN. Most other areas across the region will receive little to no measurable snow. Roads will likely continue to be slick so if traveling definitely take it easy.
We’ll watch another weak wave lift through the northwestern portions of ND starting late this evening while continuing to slowly spread eastward across the remainder of northern ND Monday. Even northwestern MN could receive some very light snow chances late Monday afternoon and evening.
The energy associated with these light snows in northern ND will remain persistent Monday night into Tuesday, lingering the risks in these areas and through northern MN during this timeframe. Another pesky pulse of light snow showers may traverse the state of SD Monday night into Tuesday as well. In general, snow accumulations are looking to stay on the lighter side, but we can’t rule out some areas in northern ND receiving 0.5-1.5″ of snow. A wave from the Central Plains is worth watching as it could clip the southern portions of MN and maybe southeastern SD with light snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. The model shown below keeps the precipitation mostly south of the area but some other guidance suggests the aforementioned possibility.
The strong signal continues for a potent storm system mid-late week (Wednesday through Friday) on the model guidance which suggests a heavy round of snow. Specifics continue to remain muffled at this point in time, with even less agreement between the models today compared to yesterday. That being said, fluctuations in track and intensity will remain likely so something to iron out as the event nears. Never-the-less, there is a healthy signal for a wide swath of 6-12″+ of snow that stretches from central SD through portions of southern MN with lesser amounts the further north you head. Localized pockets of 18″ can’t be ruled out, but we can’t be too specific yet with this system. Warm air advection in far southern MN may limit how much snow falls and the amount of rain that can mix in. One thing the models are starting to pick up on is the snows possibly coming in two waves as shown below. This is not set in stone as the GFS and GFS parallel aren’t as robust with this idea but do note a second wave of snow, but further south across the Central Plains.
Winds will also increase substantially with this system as it gains latitude and strengthens. During the height of the storm, wind gusts upwards of 35mph will be common at times, which will result in significant reductions in visibility and blowing snow. Near-blizzard conditions cannot be ruled out at this time. This is not a system to take lightly so if you are traveling post-Christmas, definitely be mindful of the weather.
Here is a risk map depicting areas with different level of risks regarding accumulating snows. There is higher confidence in the eastern half of SD into southwestern/east-central MN for heavy snowfall amounts given some close model agreement in these areas. Confidence drops off the further north you head and across far southern MN. Accumulating snows are possible across a large sum of the area, but is definitely more likely in the medium and especially high risk areas.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Precipitation through this timespan will largely be dependent on the likely snowstorm as a majority comes from this one system. Liquid amounts of 1″+ is looking likely in southeastern SD into southern MN with amounts slowly falling off the further north you head, though still above average for this timeframe. As previously discussed, post-Christmas travel will be heavily impacted by this storm so definitely keep monitoring.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days:
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!