Good morning everyone! Most of the region has woken up this morning to plentiful amounts of sunshine. However, we do not some lingering cloud cover in eastern MO which is associated with a weakening pulse working through the area. Most of the precipitation shown below in the radar loop is not reaching the ground, but there are a few locations observing light snow as of 10am CST.
Here’s a simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: The pocket of light snow in eastern MO gradually weakens/departs east over the next few hours while a few wrap-around snow showers/flurries may clip the northeastern portions of IA into this evening. Overall, not expecting any major impacts.
Elsewhere will enjoy a beautiful day with more sun than clouds as higher pressure dominates the region. The cloud cover found in eastern MO this morning will also gradually work out into the early afternoon hours. Starting this evening, we do note some increased higher levels clouds starting to stream in from the Rockies into the High Plains.
We are watching an additional system Christmas Eve providing scattered snow shower risks to the far southwestern portions of the NE Panhandle, and then increased rain shower risks later in the afternoon in eastern KS and then northwestern MO by evening. As this system works east, some mixed precipitation is likely to occur over IA late in the evening through the nighttime hours. At times Monday night, the rain showers in MO may mix with snow before exiting east Christmas morning. The bulk of the activity associated with this system will lift eastward out of the area early afternoon Christmas Day. There is less confidence on how much snow IA can receive as most models suggest any accumulation stays ~0.5″ but the NAM model (not shown) is more robust with its solution and brings ~1″ of wet snow to a majority of IA. We are not supportive of this more robust solution at this time, but something to note regardless.
All eyes after that will be on a major storm system that arrives early Wednesday bringing rain, freezing rain and snow across the region. Specifics continue to remain muffled at this point in time, with even less agreement between the models today compared to yesterday. That being said, fluctuations in track and intensity will remain likely so something to iron out as the event nears. Never-the-less, there is a healthy signal for a wide swath of 6-12″+ of snow that stretches through a large portion of NE. As the precipitation spreads through the area Wednesday, most of KS, southern IA and all of MO will be in the warm sector with too much influx of warm air to produce snow. However, heavier rains are more likely in these areas. One thing the models are starting to pick up on is the snows possibly coming in two waves as shown below. This is not set in stone as the GFS and GFS Parallel do hint at this potential with some areas of western KS and far eastern NE seeing some decent snows. However, the European shown below develops heavier snows in western KS Thursday that lifts northward into central NE Thursday night. There still remains a substantial difference in track of the low within the data and the evolution of this potential second wave, so confidence remains somewhat lower.
Winds will increase substantially with this system as it gains latitude and strengthens. During the height of the storm, wind gusts upwards of 35mph will be common at times, which will result in significant reductions in visibility in the areas that observe snow. Blowing snow will also be a threat with this storm and near-blizzard conditions cannot be ruled out at this time. This is not a system to take lightly so if you are traveling post-Christmas, definitely be mindful of the weather.
Check out the remaining differences in the track of the low pressure system Thursday. The average places the low pressure system tracking through northeastern KS into northwestern MO which would put the heavier axis for snow to the northwest. However, each “L” represents a different ensemble’s position of the low which goes to show that there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the system.
Here is a risk map depicting areas with different levels of risk regarding accumulating snows. There is higher confidence in central NE for heavy snowfall amounts given decent model agreement in these areas. Confidence drops off the further south and east you head. The European model brings in a heavy swath of snow with a second wave in western KS, but the GFS/GFS Parallel are more hesitant and keep a weaker second wave. Due to these differences and lower confidence, it has resulted in a lower risk level. Accumulating snows are possible across the northwestern half of the region, but is more likely in the medium and especially high risk areas.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Precipitation through this timespan will largely be dependent on the major storm system mid-late week as a majority comes from this one system. Liquid amounts of 1-2″ are appearing likely in KS, the eastern half of NE, IA and northwestern MO with the possibility of some areas picking up 2″+. Post-Christmas travel will heavily be impacted by this storm so definitely keep monitoring.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!