Good morning everyone! We are tracking a weak disturbance lifting through the NE Panhandle as of 9:30am CST that will slowly drift southeastward through the day and likely bring light snow accumulations. However, it will weaken as it does so and even shift over to mostly rain as it progresses into KS this afternoon. Elsewhere, a mix of sun and clouds will dominate with temperatures rising into the 40s for most.
Simulated radar through 12am CST tonight: The disturbance will bring a narrow band of light snow today across southwestern NE before it starts to transition to mostly rain due to warmer temperatures as it progresses into northwestern KS. Models have trended warmer with temperatures in KS, hence the likelihood of less snow than what was originally thought yesterday. During the evening hours a wave of light rain mixing with snow at times will traverse the state of KS while a few isolated snow showers/flurries may clip the far northern portions of IA.
Total snowfall accumulation through this evening: Generally speaking, we are looking at a narrow corridor of 0.5-2″ of snow only a couple counties wide in southwestern NE. Many will miss out on accumulating snows, especially KS as warmer temperatures transition most of the precipitation to rain. However, we can’t rule out a slushy 0.5″ of snow in northwestern KS if it takes longer than expected to make the transition.
Simulated radar from 12am CST tonight through 6am CST Monday: The wave will continue to weaken as it pushes eastward across eastern KS and southwestern MO tonight with many observing little measurable precipitation. Once again, the rain could mix with snow at times before it gradually fades over southern MO. Elsewhere, we continue to note isolated snow shower/flurry risks in northern and eastern IA tonight and even through Sunday evening, but will be very limited in coverage. Most areas will be dry Sunday with vast amounts of sunshine, though some high-level clouds will start to make their way into the High Plains late in the day.
We are watching an additional system Christmas Eve afternoon into Christmas morning that could bring a round of showers to locations such as MO and eastern KS with some snow mixing in on the northern periphery in IA. This weak system should exit by the afternoon hours Christmas Day with most of the area dry once again.
All eyes after that will be on a major storm system that arrives early Wednesday bringing rain, freezing rain and snow across the region. At this time we are favoring the northwestern half of NE to receive the brunt of the snows with northwestern IA/KS possibly observing some snow accumulations as well. The snow could be quite significant with a band of 6-12″+ setting up. All other areas not mentioned should remain in the warm sector with too much influx of warm air to produce snow. However, heavier rains are more likely in these areas. There still remains a substantial difference in track of the low within the data, but we favor the solution below as it’s a nice blend of what’s available.
Check out the remaining differences in the track of the low pressure system next week. The average places the low pressure system tracking into southwestern IA which would put the heavier axis for snow to the northwest. However, each “L” represents a different ensemble’s position of the low which goes to show that there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the system.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Precipitation through this timespan will largely be dependent on the major storm system mid-late week as a majority comes from this one system. Liquid amounts exceeding 1″+ will be common in KS and NE with some locations possibly reaching 2″ of liquid. Post-Christmas travel will likely be heavily impacted by the storm so definitely keep monitoring.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!