Good morning everyone! Temperatures are slowly but surely rising across the region this morning. However, we still have temperatures in the teens as of 9:10am CST in the northern two-thirds of MN and eastern ND with even a few readings in the single digits still showing up in far northern MN. Elsewhere, we are looking at temperatures already in the 30s in some locations of SD and they are only going to go up from there through the rest of the daytime hours.
We are looking at another nice day on tap for virtually the entire region again today with sunshine being the dominant weather story. There will be less scattered cloud cover on average for the area compared to yesterday, so some areas may remain sunny through the day (including southeastern ND, northeastern SD and southern MN). Any patchy morning fog in the region will be eroding over the next couple of hours. Weak pieces of energy clipping the far northern portions of the region will lead to these areas having the best chances for additional clouds, but still experience a mix of sun and clouds. Upper-level clouds from the Central Plains will start to stream into southern SD starting this afternoon.
The patchy freezing fog risks will continue tonight into Tuesday morning in eastern SD, southwestern MN and far southeastern ND. Temperatures will fall into the 20s during this time, so any fog that develops will lead to a few slick spots. Some of this fog will be slow to erode away Tuesday morning, so some areas may deal with fog through a majority of the morning hours.
Here’s a look at sky cover conditions during the daytime hours Tuesday: Mid-upper level clouds from the scattered energy in the Central Plains will be lifting through the southern and eastern portions of the area, helping to bring areas of cloud cover in these areas. Overall, we are looking at more cloud coverage Tuesday but periods of sun will be likely in ND and western SD. Precipitation risks remain quite minimal even into Tuesday, but we can’t rule out some patchy freezing drizzle in northern MN. However, there will be dry air in the mid-levels that should limit most of the threat but if enough saturation can occur in the lower-levels, it’s something to keep mindful.
We’re looking at another opportunity for freezing fog risks over our eastern areas starting Tuesday evening and lasting through Wednesday morning. Temperatures once again will fall below freezing in the region so any fog that develops (especially in the circled region below) could develop slick spots on pavement. The model is likely overdone on the extent of the fog risks as it may be taking into account freezing drizzle, but regardless it could lead to a few slick spots depending on how much surface saturation can occur below the mid-level dry layer.
Thanks to the northern displaced jet, we are still looking at an overall quieter pattern through the week with the next main wave to track not lifting into the region until Tuesday night. This wave should remain on the weak side given the lack of phasing with a southern piece of energy, but should still promote the propagation of scattered light rain showers across the Dakotas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly mixing with light freezing rain at times. Scattered, light precipitation will gradually work into the northwestern portions of MN starting Wednesday morning before progressing through the remainder of the state during the daytime hours. Once again, light freezing rain/drizzle may mix in with temperatures remaining near 32ºF at times. The bulk of the weak activity will either fade or exit to the east Wednesday evening but we’ll need to watch for some back-side snow showers Wednesday night first in northeastern ND and then into northern/eastern MN that could lead to light snow accumulations.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through Thursday with this weak wave progressing across the region. As expected, precipitation will remain fairly light with most areas remaining under 0.1″ of liquid. There will be areas that can miss out completely given the scattered nature of the precipitation. Areas that receive pockets of freezing rain can receive a very light glaze of ice while the northeastern portions of the region can receive a light coating of snow.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days from the European Model: The next system to track after the work week system will come early this upcoming weekend, likely in the form of light snow. In general, it will only add very minor precipitation amounts to the graphic shown above and as discussed yesterday, a few pockets in the region may receive little to no measurable precipitation. The best chances for light precipitation amounts of ~0.1″+ will be located in eastern ND into northern MN given slightly better forcing. Even with these systems, the split flow pattern isn’t helping to produce stronger storm systems and should allow for drier anomalies (percentage of normal shown in the second image below), especially the further south you head.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: As we continue our period of moderation, temperatures will end up above average for December standards. Many locations across southwestern SD will warm into the lower 50s today while temperatures generally drop off the further north and east you head. 30s will likely linger in MN and eastern ND. It won’t warm above 32ºF for some in northern MN and northeastern ND. Another mild night is on tap tonight as temperatures only drop into the mid 20s for most areas. Tuesday can be characterized with mainly 40s in the Dakotas and upper 30s/lower 40s in MN. An even milder night is possible Tuesday night with some in western ND not dropping into the 20s.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: A weakening dry cold front will progress through the region today into tonight but will only provide the risk for wind gusts upwards of maybe 25mph at times. We’ll continue to note generally lighter winds even into Tuesday before a stronger front with a tighter pressure gradient pushes into the Dakotas Wednesday, allowing for winds to increase substantially. There will be times on Wednesday (especially late) when gusts may approach 45mph. The stronger winds will lift eastward into Thursday but also weaken as they do.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls: The moderation period persists through at least this upcoming weekend while near normal temperatures will likely round out the month of December.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!